Analysts are now debating whether Bitcoin’s drop below $100K is a correction to $56K or a healthy mid-cycle adjustment.
Bitcoin has been a source of heated debates after dipping below the $100,000 mark for the first time in four months. The drop to $98,000 on November 4 created questions about whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency is entering a deeper correction or just taking a breather.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $101,380 according to CoinMarketCap.
This modest rebound has not calmed the debate among analysts, who are still divided on whether Bitcoin’s next move points higher or lower.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Is $56K a Realistic Target?
Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone was one of the biggest sources of investor caution this week. The analyst took to X to call Bitcoin’s recent surge toward $100,000 a “speed bump” that could lead to a pullback near $56,000.
His view rests on Bitcoin’s pattern of reverting to its 48-month moving average after strong rallies.
$100,000 Bitcoin – a Speed Bump Toward $56,000?
“Look at the chart” has been a mantra from Bitcoin bulls, but the market gods can refresh humility when prices stretch too far. Synonymous with humility is mean reversion, and my look at the chart shows how normal it’s been for the… pic.twitter.com/ijzJ8L4SjT— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) November 6, 2025
McGlone says that Bitcoin may follow this historical rhythm. In past cycles, when prices stretched far above this moving average, they tended to correct back to it before continuing higher.
That level now sits around $56,000 and is forming the next logical support if history repeats.
Technical indicators are currently showing slowdown in upward strength. The recent decline formed lower highs on the daily chart and analysts say this setup shows fading buying pressure.
Still, others are warning against drawing quick conclusions. The crypto market often moves in both directions and short-term price swings can mislead traders.
On-Chain Data Indicates Bitcoin Market Still Stable
Despite market volatility, on-chain data paints a calmer picture. Analytics firm Glassnode reported that the current downturn shows no signs of panic among holders.
Its report showed that the Relative Unrealized Loss ratio (which tracks the share of losses held by current investors) stands at 3.1%. Historically, readings below 5% indicate that investors are still confident and holding through mild corrections.
Glassnode compared today’s figures to mid-cycle adjustments from early this year. Those periods also saw short-term stress. However, each time, Bitcoin rebounded as selling pressure eased.
The data shows that most investors are not rushing to exit positions. Instead, they appear to be maintaining long-term confidence while the market recalibrates.
Bitcoin Analysts Split on What Comes Next
Different analysts are now taking positions on either side of the fence. Some expect a deeper fall toward the $56,000 level while others argue that current price action is similar to previous healthy corrections.
XWIN Research Japan pointed out that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) ratio has fallen to levels that historically marked local bottoms. This indicates that the current correction could be near completion, not the start of a major decline.
JUST IN: 💰 Cathie Wood says Ark Invest is trimming its bullish #Bitcoin forecast by $300K, citing stablecoins’ rapid growth in emerging markets, bringing the new top target to $1.2M by 2030. pic.twitter.com/rln31NwhR1
— Bitcoin.com News (@BTCTN) November 6, 2025
Meanwhile, ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood took a longer-term view.
She reduced her 2030 Bitcoin price forecast by $300,000 due to growing stablecoin use in emerging markets as a challenge to BTC’s role. Her revised top projection now sits at $1.2 million.