Bitcoin Struggles at $100K, Is a Crash to New Lows Coming?

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin is clinging to $100K as technicals point lower and demand from U.S. buyers remains weak.
• Price must close above $106K to recover; failure could bring sharp declines to $93K or lower.
• On-chain losses near -12% mark past bottom zones, but no clear bounce signal has formed yet.

Bitcoin was trading around $100,689, after falling over 2% in the past 24 hours and down more than 8% this week. The $100,000 level is proving to be an important short-term support, but the overall trend remains weak.

The price dropped from the $106,000–$108,000 range after multiple failed attempts to break higher. Charts now show this area acting as resistance. As long as Bitcoin trades below that zone, the pressure stays on the downside.

According to market watcher Ted, “Until BTC closes a strong daily candle above the $106,000 level, expect new lows.” If current support breaks, lower levels like $99,000, $96,000, $93,000, and $88,000 may come into focus.

Coinbase Premium Points to Low Spot Demand

The Coinbase premium, which compares prices on Coinbase with global exchanges, remains negative. This shows that U.S.-based traders are not buying heavily on spot markets.

Ted also noted, “The Coinbase Bitcoin premium is still deeply negative, which shows a lack of demand.” With no clear buying interest, especially from large players, the price may remain under pressure.

This gap often grows wider during weak market conditions. Without demand returning, sellers could take control again if the $100,000 floor gives way.

On-Chain Data Nearing Key Rebound Level

Some metrics offer a different angle. On-chain data from analyst Ali  shows traders are close to the loss threshold where past rebounds have happened. The current Profit/Loss Margin is at -11.2%.

Ali said,

“In the past two years, Bitcoin $BTC has always rebounded when traders’ realized losses fell below -12%,” 

These losses reflect recent holders, typically between one to three months. It signals that the market is nearing pain levels that previously marked short-term bottoms.

Still, this metric hasn’t hit the -12% level yet, so any turnaround remains uncertain.

Market Structure Still Under Pressure

Bitcoin remains stuck in a narrow range, with lower highs and little momentum. The price would need to close above $106,000 to shift this pattern. Until that happens, the broader structure remains weak.

If sellers push past $100,000, a drop toward deeper support areas may follow. Unless demand returns soon, price could remain under pressure in the short term.