Key Takeaways:
- Fresh on-chain data shows BTC’s underlying liquidity beginning to recover.
- On-chain analyst Willy Woo says that’s a signal that historically precedes BTC price strength by roughly two weeks.
- As Trump declares America the Bitcoin superpower of the world, the window of pain could be over for Bitcoin and the crypto market.
Markets don’t move in straight lines, and neither does the BTC price. After weeks of turbulence that left traders counting their scars, the air could be starting to clear. Amid panic after Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 and veteran traders warning of weak hands being shaken out, fresh signs of hope are emerging.
According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin liquidity is making a recovery. And that usually precedes a higher BTC price. He stated:
“Liquidity behind BTC starting to make a recovery (see leading signal, dotted line). If this recovery continues, typically price confirms approx 2 weeks later.”
That’s music to the ears of all but the panic sellers hunkering down for the next crypto winter.
A Painful October for the BTC Price
The last few weeks for Bitcoin have been tinged with pain. Just as the crypto community was gearing up for the most bullish month of the year, surprise tariff announcements lit a fuse that blew crypto prices apart.
Rather than any changes to the long-term thesis or Bitcoin fundamentals, the October selloff was a spectacle in technical carnage. More than $1 trillion in value was liquidated across the crypto complex as leverage collapsed and market structure buckled.
With 300,000 traders being liquidated daily, the crypto market morphed into its most reactive form in history amid Trump tweets and headlines.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, however, the downturn was largely technical, triggered by excessive leverage, rather than the kind of existential flight synonymous with true disbelief. Think of it as digital Darwinism. The excess washed out, long-suffering holders stepped in, and coins quietly migrated to cold storage.
But here’s the thing about pain: it tends to clear a path for something new. With on-chain data showing a recovery in liquidity, the BTC price could soon follow. Historically, a turnaround in liquidity precedes a price inflection by roughly two weeks.
If the math holds, mid-November could start looking awfully bullish, and sweep in just in time to restore everyone’s faith in crypto. “Moonvember,” anyone?
Macro Tailwinds Aligning
Of course, Bitcoin doesn’t move on technicals alone. Macro winds play their part, sometimes with the subtlety of a sledgehammer. The Federal Reserve’s latest signals on quantitative tightening (QT) are music to risk asset ears.
The chance of a prolonged liquidity squeeze is fading, and market chatter is building around the possibility of further fiscal stimulus into the election cycle. With the government shutdown now the longest in US history, markets anticipate an end in sight soon. That means sending can begin again, and, with legislative gridlock easing, capital can chase returns in places like Bitcoin.
A Fresh Trump Pump
And just when the headlines were feeling tame, the unexpected happened, raising the BTC price back to above $103,500. President Trump took the stage in Miami and declared, in characteristically emphatic tones:
“We’re making the United States the Bitcoin superpower, the crypto capital of the world.”
Forget ambiguity; this is the largest megaphone in US politics being wielded for digital assets. For traders, Trump’s words aren’t just political theater. Policy clarity around digital assets could spark a rally reminiscent of past bull runs triggered by regulatory breakthroughs.
The US pivot from uncertainty toward pro-crypto reform isn’t just about rhetoric. Previous pushes for the US to accumulate more Bitcoin for the strategic reserve could begin again, as Trump firmly places his backing behind the crypto market.
So, will Moonvember live up to its billing? As always, the market doesn’t hand out guarantees. But with on-chain liquidity rebounding and macro conditions tilting toward stimulus, the stage feels set for something more than just another sideways shuffle. Let the BTC price do the talking; for now, the signals are stacking, and the world is watching.