Key Insights:
- The US Spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded an outflow of $137 million on Wednesday.
- BTC price has recorded some recovery today, after falling to as low as $99k.
- Top experts hint at a potential crash in Bitcoin USD ahead, with some calling it the start of a bear market.
The US Spot Bitcoin ETF has once again recorded a significant outflow on Wednesday, sparking discussions in the market.
However, contrary to the trend, BTC price has erased some of its recent losses and traded in the green today.
Notably, the significant outflow from the investment instrument hints at a declining interest of the institutions.
Having said that, the investors are also staying on the sidelines, evaluating the potential future path of the flagship crypto.
It’s worth noting that today’s recovery in Bitcoin USD might have fueled the broader crypto market sentiment. For context, the altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, and others have quickly rebounded from their local lows recorded yesterday.
In other words, the latest dip might have allowed many traders to enter the market at discounted prices.
However, amid the US Spot Bitcoin ETF outflow, analysts have warned of a potential Bitcoin price crash to as low as $40,000.
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Continues to Bleed
The US Spot Bitcoin ETF records an outflow of $137 million on Wednesday, November 5. This marks an outflow for the six straight days from the investment instrument, which has continued to weigh on the traders’ sentiment.
Meanwhile, the outflow on Wednesday was mainly contributed by the outflow recorded in the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).
According to Farside Investors’ data, the IBIT has reported an outflow of $375.5 million, outpacing inflows of $113.3 million and $82.9 million from Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark Invest’s ARKB, respectively.
Over the past six sessions from October 29, the outflow was recorded at $2.04 billion.
Most of the outflows were contributed by BlackRock’s IBIT, which has further spooked the market participants over a waning risk-bet appetite of traders.
Analysts Hint at Bitcoin (BTC USD) Price Crash Amid ETF Outflows
Amid the ongoing outflow in the US Spot Bitcoin ETF, analysts have warned of a potential crash in BTC price.
However, they noted that if Bitcoin price manages to stay above a critical support, it could avoid such selling pressure.
For context, in a recent X post, analyst Benjamin Cowen said that Bitcoin USD price is at a critical level.
He said that multiple closes below the 50-week moving average would confirm a top being in, similar to previous cycles.
Cowen believes 2026 will be a bear market, regardless of whether the top is in or if there’s a slight price increase.
Echoing similar sentiments, Doctor Profit notes that the current situation is not just a correction but potentially the start of a bear market.
The expert predicts Bitcoin price to slip to as low as 54-60k levels in September or October 2026.
Another expert, Ali Martinez, highlights the significance of the 50-week moving average (50W SMA) as a long-term support level for Bitcoin.
Historically, losing this level has led to major corrective phases, with an average correction of around 60%.
If BTC price closes below the current 50W SMA level near $102,000, Martinez warns of a potential 60% correction, projecting a downside target around $40,000.
Can Bitcoin Price Avoid this Crash?
Some analysts have remained optimistic despite the ongoing outflow from the US Spot Bitcoin ETF and the warnings from other experts.
In a recent X post, expert Ted notes that the recent dip in Bitcoin price below the EMA-50 level was predicted.
However, the incoming weekly close will determine the next move. Ted noted that a close above EMA-50 with strong buy volume could mean Bitcoin has bottomed. But a close below EMA-50 could signal further decline.
Simultaneously, analyst Rekt Capital has urged investors to watch a breakout above $108,000 to confirm the bullish trend.
According to Rekt, if Bitcoin USD can close above $108k, it could trigger a massive surge to $123k for BTC price.
Having said that, if the US Spot Bitcoin ETF regains momentum, it could help in a strong recovery in Bitcoin USD.
In addition, the latest dip might also allow retail traders to enter the market at a lower price.