EUR/USD deep in undervaluation zone – ING

EUR/USD remains in undervaluation territory, with the USD’s strength looking stretched relative to fundamentals, leaving room for near-term stabilization and a modest rebound, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Dollar strength now overshoots fundamentals

“EUR/USD is trading well within undervaluation territory, as the dollar rally has extended beyond what can be justified by short-term drivers suvh as rate differentials and equities. With the current spot (1.151), we estimate undervaluation at 1.3%.”

“This means another leg lower would either imply some significant premium build-up on the euro (which generally argues for faster reversals) or require some hawkish Fed repricing. We don’t see a catalyst for the second, and we expect instead some stabilisation in the pair in the coming days with upside risks to 1.160.”