Why the Crypto Market Is Down: Fed Expectations and ETF Flows Shape Sentiment (Oct 29, 2025)

CoinMarketCap says that the total value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation fell 1.6% to $3.89 trillion on Wednesday, putting pressure on the market around the world. However, trading has been strong, with volumes going up only a little to $171 billion in the last 24 hours.

The move shows that the economy as a whole is being cautious before the US Federal Reserve makes its rate decision later today.

At the time of this writing, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is about $112,800, down about 2% on the day. The price of Ethereum (ETH) has dropped 3% to $3,990. Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 3.1% to $0.1939, BNB dropped 2.1% to $1,111, and Solana (SOL) dropped 1.9% to $196.34.

XRP was the only thing that stayed green, going up 0.5% to $2.64.

Even though prices are going down, institutional buyers are still very confident.

CoinPedia reveals that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $202.48 million yesterday, but Ethereum ETFs saw more net inflows of $246.02 million.

Bitwise’s new Solana ETF had the best start, with $69.5 million coming in on the first day. That’s nearly six times as much as Rex-Osprey’s Solana Staking ETF (SSK).

Alongside ETF inflows, some traders rotate into presales when volatility spikes. If you’re researching that segment, this guide explains the mechanics of buying Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) in presale format. Due to the high risk, illiquidity, and outside ETF-style safeguards, such guides are useful as they show the speculative end of the market that comes back when prices for regular crypto drop.

In this case, these numbers show that big investors see the current slump as a chance to get in rather than a sign to get out.

The Federal Reserve is likely to lower its target range of interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 3.75 – 4%.

Now, all eyes are on the Fed to see if it will also hint at stopping its balance-sheet runoff. This could bring liquidity back to risk markets.

CoinDesk’s Daybook says that traders see this week as a “make-or-break” moment. A “dovish” tone could lead to short-term crypto gains of 5 – 10%, while a “hawkish” tone could make losses worse.

The US dollar has weakened in preparation, but futures and funding rates are still very volatile.

Beyond the US, the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting and Q3 earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are expected to influence sentiment across risk assets.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is now at 39 (“Fear”), down from 42 yesterday.

That’s more than last week’s 29 (“Extreme Fear”), but the general tone is still cautious.

Analysts point out that this level of uncertainty often comes before big swings because traders are preparing for big events.

Key support for Bitcoin is at $110,500, a price range that saw a lot of buying earlier this month.

If prices make a strong move above $115,000, they could go to $118,200 and $121,000. On the other hand, if they can’t hold $112,000, they may start selling again.

Ethereum shows similar technical compression between $3,900 and $4,100; a breakout above the upper bound could see targets near $4,400.

In related news, Truth Social (owned by Trump Media & Technology Group) announced a partnership with Crypto.com to launch prediction markets on real-world events ranging from elections to commodities.

The collaboration, verified by Reuters, marks the first time a publicly traded social-media company has integrated derivatives trading through a regulated affiliate.

The Bitget analysts say that the markets are “balanced between hope and hesitation.”

If the Fed signals a longer easing cycle, capital may rotate back into riskier tokens such as Solana and XRP, which have recently shown relative strength.

For now, crypto remains tethered to macro policy expectations – a reminder that even in a $3.9 trillion market, liquidity is still the ultimate narrative.

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Source: https://www.livebitcoinnews.com/why-the-crypto-market-is-down-fed-expectations-and-etf-flows-shape-sentiment-oct-29-2025/