Scope to move lower to 153.00 – UOB Group

There is scope for US Dollar (USD) to move lower to 153.00; based on the current momentum, it is unlikely to break clearly below this level. In the longer run, USD appears to have entered a 152.40/154.40 range-trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Unlikely to break clearly below 153.00

24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, we expected USD to ‘test 154.50’. After our expectation did not materialize, we highlighted yesterday that ‘the underlying tone still appears to be firm, and we continue to hold the view that there is a chance for USD to test 154.50’. While we were not wrong, as USD rose to a high of 154.48, we did not anticipate the subsequent sharp drop that reached a low of 153.30. Downward momentum has increased, albeit not much. Today, there is scope for USD to move lower toward 153.00. Based on the current momentum, a clear break below this level is unlikely. Resistance levels are at 153.80 and 154.10.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Friday (31 Oct, spot at 153.90), we highlighted that ‘the sharp increase in upward momentum could lead to further advance toward 154.90’. After USD struggled to extend its advance, we stated yesterday (04 Nov, spot at 154.20) that ‘upward momentum is starting to slow, but as long as the ‘strong support’ at 153.45 holds, there is still a chance for USD to rise toward 154.90’. USD then fell and broke below 153.45 (low was 153.30). USD appears to have entered a range-trading phase, and for the time being, it is likely to trade between 152.40 and 154.40.”