Bitcoin’s latest correction has rattled traders once again, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly dropped under $100,000 for the first time since early summer.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin briefly dropped below $100K, its lowest level since June.
- Analysts say retail capitulation could mark a market bottom.
- Arthur Hayes expects new Fed liquidity to lift crypto prices.
- Bitcoin now meets the technical definition of a bear market.
- Traders watch the $100K zone as a key support level.
The move rekindled fears of a deeper decline, yet several seasoned market voices argue the opposite — that the sell-off may actually mark the beginning of Bitcoin’s next phase of strength.
Retail Capitulation May Signal a Bottom
Bitwise’s chief investment officer Matt Hougan sees the latest wave of selling as emotional exhaustion rather than fundamental weakness. In an interview with CNBC, Hougan described retail sentiment as “utterly crushed,” suggesting that small investors have largely surrendered after weeks of liquidations.
He believes the extreme pessimism is historically typical of market bottoms. “Whenever retail confidence evaporates but institutional curiosity remains strong, it usually means opportunity is around the corner,” Hougan said. He also noted that longer-term performance metrics still show Bitcoin vastly outperforming most traditional assets this year, even after the correction.
Hougan remains confident that large-scale buyers will return once the market stabilizes, predicting Bitcoin could end the year above its previous record, potentially climbing toward the $125,000–$130,000 range.
Hayes Predicts Liquidity Tailwind from the Fed
Former BitMEX chief Arthur Hayes offered a very different reason for optimism — one rooted in macroeconomics rather than sentiment. In a detailed essay, Hayes said the United States’ escalating debt burden is cornering the Federal Reserve into expanding its balance sheet again.
He referred to this process as “stealth quantitative easing,” where the Fed injects liquidity through its repo operations without announcing a full-blown stimulus program. According to Hayes, this subtle growth of dollar liquidity eventually spills into risk assets like Bitcoin. “As long as money supply expands, digital assets benefit — it’s baked into the system,” he wrote.
Hayes expects this quiet liquidity expansion to reignite bullish momentum before the year ends, arguing that monetary policy, not speculation, will drive the next uptrend.
Market Still Under Pressure
Despite such bullish outlooks, other analysts remain wary. Data from The Kobeissi Letter confirms that Bitcoin has officially entered bear market territory, having fallen more than 20% from its October peak. The coin’s latest rebound above $102,000 has done little to soothe nerves, with traders warning that a failure to hold the $100,000 line could send it back toward the $92,000 zone.
Investor Ted Pillows described the atmosphere as “orderly but fearful,” pointing to thinning liquidity across exchanges. “If we lose that psychological level, volatility could explode again,” he cautioned.
Cycle of Fear and Hope
For now, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads — squeezed between macro uncertainty and long-term conviction. While pessimism dominates headlines, analysts like Hougan and Hayes see this phase as a necessary reset before the next expansion wave.
Whether Bitcoin’s recovery materializes or not may depend less on retail traders and more on the broader liquidity tide that’s starting to shift beneath global markets. For the crypto faithful, the coming months will test whether the narrative of digital scarcity can outlast yet another round of fear.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-price-outlook-fear-takes-hold-but-analysts-see-a-turning-point/