AUD/USD might drop further to 0.6465 – UOB Group

Strong momentum suggests Australian Dollar (AUD) could drop further to 0.6465; the major support at 0.6445 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, outlook for AUD is negative now, but last month’s low near 0.6445 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Outlook for AUD is negative now

24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, AUD dropped to a low of 0.6518 and then rebounded. Yesterday, we stated that ‘there is a chance for AUD to retest the 0.6520 level before another rebound is likely’. Our assessments were incorrect, as AUD plunged to a low of 0.6481. Strong momentum suggests AUD could drop further, potentially testing 0.6460. The major support at 0.6445 is likely out of reach for now. To maintain the strong momentum, AUD must hold below 0.6515, with minor resistance at 0.6500.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Friday (31 Oct, spot at 0.6555), we indicated that AUD “is likely to trade in a range between 0.6505 and 0.6610.” Yesterday, AUD broke below 0.6505 and dropped to a low of 0.6481. The decline has gathered momentum, and we are revising our view to negative. That said, last month low, near 0.6445, may not come into view so soon. To keep the momentum going, AUD must hold below the ‘strong resistance’ level, now at 0.6540.”