Crypto Exchange Gemini Plans to Launch Prediction Market Contracts

Gemini plans to launch prediction market contracts soon. This move follows a CFTC application and strong market demand.

Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, is reportedly planning a new venture. In particular, it wants to launch prediction market contracts. Bloomberg was first to report this development on Tuesday.

Citing anonymous sources who were familiar with the plans, the report showed a fast timeline. Gemini has talked about the launch of these products “as soon as possible.” As a result, this is a signal to quickly enter the expanding market.

In May, Gemini submitted a crucial application. It applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This application attempted to put into operation a designated contract market. This regulatory status is important in the case of a derivatives exchange.

Gemini Eyes Derivatives Exchange Status Amid IPO and Losses

This new platform is currently being reviewed by the CFTC. Therefore, it could double down as the exchange for these prediction contracts, according to Bloomberg. Thus, regulatory approval is a critical next step.

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The move would place Gemini in a larger trend. Many financial companies are entering the prediction market industry in its infancy. Specifically, these markets provide a federally regulated method of betting on different outcomes. This includes sports games, elections, and other big events.

Gemini Space Station Inc., the official name of the exchange, wants this expansion. This strategy is focused on diversifying its offer. As such, it joins other platforms in feeding this demand.

Gemini did its first public offering (IPO) in September. The company raised a huge $425 million. This was one of the strongest debuts for a digital asset platform. Therefore, the firm is well-capitalized in new ventures.

At the time of its IPO, this venture was teased by the New York-based firm. A filing was an indication of its intention to launch event contracts. These would include “economic, financial, political and sports forecasts.” Thus, such a plan has been under development for a while.

Prediction Markets See Massive Demand and Regulatory Opening

The move comes as there is tremendous demand for prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket display record volume growth. Kalshi is already registered with the U.S. CFTC. For this reason, Polymarket is also looking at reopening in the US in the near future.

Gemini faces competition in the existing platforms. These include Kalshi, Polymarket. Additionally, mainstream exchanges such as CME Group are moving into the event contracts. There is a crypto competitor, Coinbase, too, in this space. Therefore, the market is becoming crowded.

Prediction markets have experienced a significant growth in activity recently. Some of the platforms experienced all-time high monthly volumes in October 2025. Thus, this will represent a growing and attractive market opportunity. As a result, Gemini seems to be a strategic timing.

Financially, Gemini has been struggling since its IPO. The company was hit with a major drop in stock price. It also reported accelerating net losses. Specifically, in the first half of 2025, it had a net loss of $282 million. This was on $68.6 million in revenue.

Therefore, prediction markets are an “attractive” opportunity. This expansion might compensate for recent financial setbacks. As such, it provides a new revenue stream and market diversification.

Regulatory Environment Becomes More Favorable for Event Contracts

Gemini has dealt with regulators before. However, in August 2024, the company filed comments with the CFTC. These comments concerned proposed rules on event contracts. Thus, it has been playing an active role in the regulatory discussion.

The CFTC has, of late, been more open. It is starting to see prediction markets as a new frontier in finance. Therefore, this represents a potentially more positive regulatory landscape for Gemini’s new business. Consequently, the time of their plans to launch is opportune.

Before the introduction of contracts, it is mandatory to have CFTC approval. Gemini’s application to run a derivatives exchange needs to be reviewed. Therefore, although the plans are in motion, there are regulatory hurdles. Nevertheless, the prospects of Gemini entering this field of business seem positive.