ECB members mostly on the same page – ING

The slew of post-meeting ECB speakers has added little to the policy narrative, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD may face a rally to 1.18-1.20 into year-end

“The Governing Council is broadly on the same page with the rates view, and the feeling is that some substantial data surprises are now needed to create new division among policymakers. If anything, we think the ECB might cut once again, but the risks at the moment aren’t high, and we predict that the easing cycle is over.”

“Despite the hawkish repricing in the USD curve, the EUR/USD drop looks a bit overdone. Our short-term fair value model is now showing a 1% undervaluation, and with positioning now much more balanced, the pair can enjoy faster rallies on poor US jobs market news.”

“We remain optimistic on a rally into year-end to 1.18-1.20, but until US data gives the go-ahead for a rebound, there aren’t other obvious bullish drivers for EUR/USD.”