Key Insights:
- Bitcoin (BTC) price approached the 50-day trend average near $108,000.
- ETF inflows from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale supported liquidity in Q4 2025.
- Some models outlined a December 2025 peak near $135,000–$140,000 if support held.
Bitcoin (BTC) price traded near a crucial technical marker on Monday as traders monitored whether its 50-day trend average would hold. The level often acted as a pivot between sustained rallies and deeper pullbacks in past market cycles.
Bitcoin price tested the 50-day trend average
The 50-day simple moving average marked a key line for BTC. This indicator averaged the last 50 closes. It smoothed swings and showed trend direction. Many institutional desks used it as a baseline to identify momentum direction and filter out short-term noise.
Since 2021, this measure had repeatedly defined Bitcoin’s broader cycles. A breakdown below it in mid-2021 triggered a prolonged downturn toward $20,000. Later, rebounds above the same line in 2023 and early 2024 marked the start of extended rallies.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price was around $107,800, down 2.29% over 24 hours and 6.63% on the week. It declined 12.17% during the past month but remained within its broader upward structure. Analysts said the moving average continued to represent the most relevant near-term support area.
Trading behavior around this level often dictated short-term sentiment. A rebound could confirm resilience, while a clean break below risked accelerating liquidations. Volume and daily closes were viewed as key confirmation factors for either outcome.
Derivatives data also showed that leverage positioning remained elevated, raising the chance of forced unwinds if price pressure deepened. Many algorithmic strategies adjusted exposure depending on whether BTC closed above or below the 50-day line.
Bitcoin price scenarios heading into late 2025
Cycle models outlined two distinct paths for Bitcoin’s next move. A firm defense of the 50-day level could open room to retest prior highs, while sustained weakness might confirm a deeper correction.
Some long-range projections saw Bitcoin peaking near $135,000–$140,000 by December 2025, aligning with historical post-halving expansions. Each halving event, including the one in 2024, cut new BTC issuance and often preceded a delayed period of upward repricing.
Institutional flows strengthened that outlook. Spot Bitcoin ETFs managed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale continued to attract inflows through Q4 2025, extending a year-long trend of accumulation. These funds gave traditional investors exposure to BTC while improving liquidity and tightening spreads on regulated markets.
Analysts estimated Bitcoin’s total market capitalization near $2.1 Trillion, representing roughly 53% of global token value. This dominance reinforced its position as the market’s benchmark asset.
Bearish risks still existed. A clean breakdown below the 50-day measure could open the door to deeper retracements. Liquidity zones from earlier consolidations might attract sellers seeking exit points. Market participants noted that sharp pierces through heavily watched levels often expanded volatility ranges and triggered cascading moves.
Even within the bullish framework, timing remained uncertain. Historical cycle peaks frequently arrived months later than initial projections, sometimes overshooting before correction phases.
ETF creation activity also tightened supply conditions. Every new share represented physical BTC withdrawn from exchange inventories, reducing available float. Over-the-counter desks managed larger institutional transactions without distorting open-market pricing.
Liquidity patterns tended to cluster near prior consolidation ranges. Sustained closes above those clusters typically supported further upside, while failure to hold them weakened the trend.
What could drive the next move
Beyond chart levels, several macro and cross-asset factors shaped Bitcoin’s outlook. The BTC/gold ratio, a long-term measure of performance against gold, appeared to be forming a local base. Charts showed an ascending support trend from 2017 meeting a descending resistance line, a structure often preceding stronger directional moves.
The ratio indicated where capital rotated between gold and Bitcoin. A rising ratio suggested Bitcoin outperformance, while a decline reflected preference for traditional safe-havens.
Gold’s recent strength stemmed from global trade frictions and safety flows, but traders said those drivers seemed to be easing. If risk appetite improved, Bitcoin could regain relative momentum.
Macro sentiment also played a decisive role. Softer inflation expectations and hopes for an end to the US government shutdown supported risk assets. A weaker dollar and lower real yields often benefited tokens by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
ETF demand further reinforced structural support. Continued inflows kept spot liquidity firm and stabilized price discovery on regulated venues.
For now, technical context remained straightforward: bulls aimed to secure a daily close above the 50-day trend line, while bears looked for confirmation of a deeper breakdown. The outcome at this level could define the next phase of Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle.