After nearly a year of bullish momentum, Bitcoin’s seasonal streak finally snapped. The cryptocurrency closed October in negative territory, down almost 4% – a rare setback for a month traders have long dubbed “Uptober.”
The weak finish has reignited talk of an impending correction, with some analysts now eyeing a potential drop toward the $87,000 range.
Cracks Emerge in the Uptrend
Bitcoin’s inability to hold above $110,000 has traders questioning whether the market’s multi-month rally has run its course. According to a recent analysis by TradingShot on TradingView, BTC’s latest rejection from its 50-day moving average has revived a bearish fractal eerily similar to the one seen between December 2024 and February 2025.
During that earlier phase, Bitcoin lost its higher-lows structure and slid more than 30% from record levels before stabilizing. The same setup — a failed breakout at the 0.5 Fibonacci zone, declining volume, and persistent lower highs — appears to be unfolding again, raising fears of another steep correction.
If history rhymes, the next significant support could form near $87,000, aligning with the 2.0 Fibonacci extension and the weekly 100-day moving average — two levels that have previously acted as a launchpad for rebounds.
Macro Conditions Complicate the Outlook
The technical weakness comes at a time when the broader macro backdrop is turning uncertain. Hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut before year-end have started to fade, denting risk appetite across global markets. Bitcoin, often seen as a high-beta asset, has mirrored that hesitation, showing little reaction even to positive developments like renewed trade progress between Washington and Beijing.
Some traders suggest that the muted price response signals fatigue after a long rally fueled by ETF inflows and institutional accumulation earlier in the year. “Liquidity seems to be drying up just as macro risks are resurfacing,” one trader noted, pointing to declining open interest and shrinking volume on major exchanges.
Investors Eye $87K as Key Support
Despite the cautious mood, long-term holders appear largely unfazed. On-chain data indicates continued accumulation below $100,000, with several wallet cohorts adding to their positions. Analysts say that if the market does follow through with a pullback, it could reset overbought conditions and pave the way for another leg higher heading into 2026.
Still, the short-term tone remains defensive. Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the psychological $110,000 level has turned that area into a ceiling of resistance, and traders are watching for confirmation of whether $95,000–$90,000 will hold in the weeks ahead.
A Rare “Uptober” Miss
Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s most consistent months for gains — making this year’s performance especially notable. The last time Bitcoin finished October in the red was more than a decade ago, in 2014.
Whether this year’s stumble proves to be a temporary pause or the start of a broader reversal will depend largely on macro catalysts and how the market responds around the $87,000 region. For now, traders appear content to wait — and watch whether Bitcoin’s November narrative can turn the tide.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-falters-after-weak-monthly-close-price-eyes-deeper-crash/