- Yoon Auh of BOLTS Technologies cautioned that even false claims about quantum threats could trigger a major crypto sell-off, similar to the $19 billion liquidation, after Trump’s tariff announcements recently.
- Researchers estimate that it would take 2,000–3,000 logical qubits to break Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve encryption, a level of quantum capability not expected until the 2030s.
Discussions around the quantum computing threats to Bitcoin have once again started surfacing, with experts debating again on how soon it could break the BTC blockchain network.
Recent breakthroughs from Google, Caltech, and IBM have revived discussions about the potential arrival of “Q-Day,” i.e., when the point is reached at which quantum computers could break the cryptographic systems that secure Bitcoin and decentralized finance (DeFi), as reported by CNF.
Panic Spreads Faster Than Quantum Threats, Triggering Bitcoin Crash
Despite the threats of quantum computing coming to the surface, crypto market experts believe that panic in the market spreads even faster. This leads to premature market reactions like the Bitcoin and crypto market crash. In the crypto market, fear often spreads faster than logic, while code underpins the system, sentiment continues to drive prices.
Yoon Auh, founder of post-quantum cryptography firm BOLTS Technologies, cautioned that even a single false claim about quantum computers compromising Bitcoin could trigger a market-wide panic. The analyst referenced last month’s flash crash as an example of the same.
“A $50 to $100 million sell-off—basically nothing in traditional markets—triggered massive losses across blockchain assets. That shows how fragile the system still is,” said Auh while speaking to a leading publication.
Earlier this month, a post from President Donald Trump warning of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports sparked the largest single-day crypto sell-off on record. As CNF mentioned, the crash triggered $19 billion in liquidations as Bitcoin briefly dropped below $102,000.
Auh noted that a similar threat might unfold, as quantum threats get real. “Imagine hearing someone say, ‘[Elliptic-curve cryptography] can be broken now, maybe not instantly, but soon.’ Everyone would rush for the exit. The system would trip over itself,” noted the expert.
Breaking Past the BTC Algorithm Will Take A Decade
Quantum computers operate on fundamentally different principles than classical computers. While traditional systems use bits that represent either 0 or 1, quantum computers use qubits.
In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor demonstrated that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could theoretically break the encryption that secures modern digital systems.
A powerful quantum computer could run Shor’s algorithm to reverse this process, revealing private keys behind exposed public keys on the blockchain. Bitcoin uses a specific ECC system called secp256k1 to generate and verify digital signatures.
If a quantum machine were capable of running these computations at scale, it could recover private keys and potentially drain wallets linked to visible public addresses.
Experts estimate that breaking Bitcoin’s ECC with Shor’s algorithm would require between 2,000 and 3,000 logical qubits. Most researchers expect this milestone to be reached sometime in the 2030s, according to projections from IBM and Google.