Bitcoin (BTC) is once again testing a critical level that could determine the direction of its next major move.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading just above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)—a technical line that analysts call the “Golden Line”—as bulls aim for a breakout toward $135,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin Tests the Golden Line—The 50 SMA Holds the Key
According to crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader), the 50 SMA has been the dividing line between “wealth and regret” for Bitcoin’s market cycles since 2021. “In 2021, this line triggered the bear market. In 2024 and 2025, it fueled every bullish breakout. Now Bitcoin is testing it again. The 50 SMA decides everything,” Merlijn wrote on X.
The line between wealth and regret, Bitcoin once again tests its fate at the 50 SMA, where a bounce could ignite the next major rally. Source: @MerlijnTrader via X
Historical data support that claim. When Bitcoin broke below the 50 SMA in mid-2021, it marked the start of the bear market that saw BTC crash toward $20,000. Conversely, every sustained bounce off this level during 2023 and early 2024 ignited multi-month rallies.
Currently, Bitcoin trades around $110,000–$112,000, hovering dangerously close to the moving average. A clean bounce could set the stage for a bullish continuation, while a decisive breakdown might trigger renewed liquidation pressure.
Analysts Eye $135K–$140K Top by Late 2025
Prominent Elliott Wave analyst BigBullMike7335 (@Michael_EWpro) predicts that Bitcoin could reach its next cycle top between $135,000 and $140,000 in December 2025. “$BTC tops in Dec 2025, $135–$140k. “$200K-plus moon boys are about to find out,” he noted.
Bitcoin could top around $135K–$140K by December 2025, humbling $200K moon boys. Source: @Michael_EWpro via X
While the prediction is ambitious, it aligns with the broader Bitcoin price forecast narrative that sees BTC entering a post-halving expansion phase. The next Bitcoin halving, completed in 2024, has historically preceded major bull runs—a pattern that institutional investors continue to monitor closely.
Recent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, including products by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale, reinforce the view that institutional demand remains a strong tailwind for the market. As of now, Bitcoin’s market cap hovers near $2.1 trillion, accounting for roughly 53% of the global crypto capitalization.
Bitcoin vs. Gold—BTC/Gold Ratio Signals Reversal
Trader TedPillows (@TedPillows) shared a long-term chart showing the BTC/Gold ratio forming a potential local bottom—a signal that Bitcoin could soon outperform gold after months of lagging. “The next step should be $BTC outperformance, but it could happen if the US government shutdown ends,” Ted wrote.
BTC/Gold ratio hints at a local bottom, signaling potential Bitcoin outperformance as macro tensions ease. Source: @TedPillows via X
The chart highlights an ascending support trendline stretching back to 2017, now meeting a descending resistance trendline—a classic setup for a bullish reversal. Ted attributes gold’s recent strength to US-China trade war concerns and a flight to safety, but believes those macro catalysts are fading, potentially rotating momentum back into risk assets like Bitcoin.
Macro Backdrop and ETF Inflows Could Support BTC Recovery
Institutional activity remains robust across Bitcoin ETF markets. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity’s FBTC have reported steady inflows through Q4 2025, signaling continued investor confidence. These vehicles have not only enhanced Bitcoin’s legitimacy among traditional investors but have also added deep liquidity to the BTC market.
Meanwhile, macro conditions—including easing inflation expectations and a potential end to the US government shutdown—could fuel risk-on sentiment. If these factors align with strong technical support at the 50 SMA, the setup for a new Bitcoin rally becomes increasingly compelling.
Bitcoin Outlook—Bullish Above the Golden Line
For now, Bitcoin’s fate appears tied to one simple question: can it hold the Golden Line? As long as the 50 SMA remains intact, the structure favors another bullish leg toward $135K, supported by rising ETF participation, a resilient BTC market cap, and a technically favorable BTC/gold ratio.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $110,028, down 0.09% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin Price via Brave New Coin
Traders are watching this setup closely. A successful rebound from the 50 SMA could mark the start of a decisive rally—potentially positioning Bitcoin for another run toward its next all-time high (ATH).
If history rhymes, the 50 SMA could once again become the launchpad for Bitcoin’s next major cycle—one that many hope will carry it beyond $135,000 by the close of 2025.