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According to Polymarket data, odds on a key contract tracking Bankman-Fried’s pardon surged from 5.6% to 12% within hours, with total wagers now exceeding $6.5 million.
Another contract briefly hit 19.1% before settling near 15.5%, marking one of the most volatile trading sessions in weeks.
Around $302,000 has been staked directly on the possibility of clemency for the former FTX boss.
Analysts say the rapid repricing reflects how sentiment-driven prediction markets respond to political signals rather than legal progress. Meanwhile, traders have been reacting to news flow, including executive actions, legal filings, and social media reactions to high-profile pardons.
 
Polymarket’s recent U.S. expansion, following CFTC approval and its $112 million acquisition of QCEX, has only amplified trading activity across these speculative markets.
Trump, who publicly defended CZ during a recent speech, said, “They said, what he did is not even a crime, wasn’t a crime… I gave him a pardon at the request of a lot of good people.” CZ later acknowledged the post on X, simply replying, “Word.”
Bankman-Fried, meanwhile, remains imprisoned following his 25-year sentence for orchestrating multiple fraudulent schemes involving more than $8 billion in misused customer funds, according to the U.S. Department of Justice. His appeal is still pending, but speculation over potential leniency has intensified since CZ’s release.
While some legal experts remain skeptical, traders seem convinced that shifting political winds could redefine accountability in crypto’s legal space, and perhaps give Bankman-Fried a second chance that once seemed impossible.