A screen grab from a footage shows the long-range Turkish indigenous air defense missile Siper after its test launch in Sinop, Turkiye on December 30, 2022. (Photo by Turkish Defence Industry Agency / Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Over the past year, the Middle East has witnessed significant developments related to strategic air defenses. Syria and Iran’s air defenses suffered fatal blows from Israel. At the same time, other countries, such as Iraq and Egypt, are strengthening and upgrading their respective air defenses with new acquisitions.
Just over a year ago, on October 26, 2024, Israel retaliated for an enormous Iranian ballistic missile barrage earlier that month. The operation saw Israeli jets cross through the airspaces of Iraq and Syria and launch standoff munitions, likely including Israeli-made air-launched ballistic missiles, against various Iranian targets. That one night of air strikes neutralized a significant number, if not all, of Iran’s strategic S-300 air defense missile systems. Tehran failed to intercept any of the Israeli aircraft, operating far from their bases.
A previous pinprick strike in retaliation for Iran’s first ballistic missile attack the preceding April had targeted the radar of an S-300 in central Iran—an early demonstration of Israel’s ability to knock out Iran’s most advanced air defenses with over-the-horizon strikes.
However, as witnessed over the ensuing months, these strikes were only the beginning.
The Assad regime in Syria collapsed in December, in no small part due to Israel’s decapitation of the Hezbollah leadership in neighboring Lebanon in the preceding months and Russia’s preoccupation with its war against Ukraine. Israel immediately pounced, launching a devastating air campaign that destroyed Syria’s remaining air defenses, which included Russian-made systems, and much of its leftover military hardware.
For Israel, the regional skies were never more open for another offensive on Iran. Israeli officials spoke openly about a window closing if Israel did not act. So, in June 2025, Israel launched the 12-day war against Iran, targeting its military leadership and nuclear scientists, missile and nuclear programs. Israel did not lose a single crewed aircraft, demonstrating how effectively it had suppressed and destroyed much of Iran’s anti-air capabilities. In the weeks after the war, Iranian officials dubiously claimed that the country had rapidly replaced air defenses damaged in the campaign and was even ready for another war. Reports of a delivery of Chinese-made surface-to-air missiles in July remain unconfirmed and officially denied by Beijing.
The Israeli Air Force met no resistance flying through the airspaces of Syria and Iraq en route to their targets. Syria had no means to intercept the Israelis since the devastating strikes that began in December. Iraq had limited air defense, consisting of short-range American-made Avenger and medium-range Russian-made Pantsir-S1 systems, but there are no indications that Baghdad used them.
Since then, Iraq has vowed it will prevent Israel from using its airspace in such a way again. And it will receive medium-range KM-SAM air defenses from South Korea, which are significantly more advanced than its existing systems, in 2026. However, analysts are skeptical that Baghdad would actually try to use these KM-SAMs to shoot down Israeli aircraft if they enter service before another Israel-Iran war.
Nevertheless, the KM-SAM marks a significant upgrade of Iraq’s air defenses, which have remained relatively weak since the 1991 Persian Gulf War.
A Syrian Defense Ministry delegation visited Moscow in early October. Their Russian hosts showed them military hardware, including air defenses and military drones. A photo of a Syrian official standing beside a long-range S-400, the most advanced air defense system Russia deployed in Syria during the civil war, briefly fueled speculation that Damascus is interested in acquiring the high-end, strategic system. The official subsequently clarified that this is not the case.
“The visit placed particular emphasis on advanced air defense systems designed to counter Israeli precision-guided munitions and drones—both of which have posed serious challenges to the new Syrian government in recent months,” noted a recent Foreign Policy article.
During the civil war, Syria routinely claimed that its Russian-made Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2 systems intercepted the majority of Israeli standoff munitions fired at targets in Syria. Russia even backed up such claims in 2021. Either way, these Syrian systems were ultimately pulverized by Israel since last December.
Aron Lund, a fellow with Century International and a senior analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, is highly skeptical that Syria’s new government will buy any high-end military hardware from Russia.
“I don’t really see that happening, unless they’re getting a huge discount in return for some political concession,” he told me. “The new Syrian government has no money for those kinds of deals. It’s struggling to stay alive economically.”
Furthermore, he pointed out that Israel still has its “finger on the trigger” and stands “ready to blow up any new air defense system, radar, or military jet that shows up” in Syria.
“If the Syrians were to get money for high-end arms imports from somewhere, it would most likely be from Qatar, and if it’s from Qatar, then it will be spent in Turkey, not Russia,” Lund said. “But sure, maybe there could be some contracts for upkeep and repair of existing materiel. Maybe they could buy less advanced equipment.”
Israel has opposed Turkey supplying Syria with advanced air defenses and opposes Turkey deploying any of its air defenses, especially S-400s, in the country’s central regions.
Turkey wants to help Syria at least partially rebuild its devastated air defense. Senior Turkish officials recently provided Syrian army officers training on a Turkish-made 35mm anti-aircraft system in Turkey. However, the prospect of Syria acquiring strategic air defenses anytime soon seems unlikely for both political and financial reasons.
To Syria’s north, Turkey has made impressive headway in developing homegrown air defense capabilities. Its national Steel Dome integrated, multilayered air defenses will consist entirely of indigenous systems, from numerous short-range systems for providing point defense to long-range systems like the Siper, which can hit targets from 62 miles away.
In addition to developing the Steel Dome for its national air defense, Turkey is assisting other countries, notably Indonesia and Bangladesh, in building tailor-made national air defenses.
Turkey had long lacked a long-range system of its own. In the past, when it faced potential ballistic missile threats from Assad’s Syria or Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, it relied on its NATO members to deploy Patriot systems. Ankara made the fateful decision to purchase S-400s from Russia in the late 2010s, which resulted in its expulsion from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. Turkey ultimately never put the Russian systems into service and seems unlikely to deploy them to Syria.
Turkey presently hopes to regain admission into the F-35 program by finding a solution to the S-400 issue. Ankara’s latest proposal for resolving the issue reportedly involves removing a component from the Russian system to technically render it “inoperable.” The proposal appears similar to past ones, which apparently included dismantling and storing the systems and allowing American inspections in return for Turkey gaining reentry into the F-35 program.
Whatever ultimately happens in the peculiar case of Turkey’s S-400s, the country has undoubtedly made noteworthy progress in developing air defenses.
Israel’s is undoubtedly the most sophisticated air defense system in the entire region. During the 12-day war, the multilayered air defense faced daily barrages of Iranian ballistic missiles, numbering a total of over 500 throughout the war. It’s unclear precisely how many of its Arrow 3 interceptor missiles, designed for intercepting incoming ballistic missiles above the Earth’s atmosphere, Israel expended, but it was undoubtedly a significant number. Furthermore, the United States fired a substantial number of expensive ground-based Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptor missiles and ship-launched SM-3s while helping Israel defend against these bombardments.
While it will likely take Israel and its U.S. backer some time to replenish these depleted interceptors, Israel is nonetheless still expected to fulfil export contracts for foreign clients on time. These contracts include sales to Europe, most notably the Arrow 3 to Germany, Israel’s single biggest arms sale ever. Additionally, Israel will sell Finland its David’s Sling system and Slovakia its Barak MX. It recently delivered the Republic of Cyprus its second batch of Barak MX systems, the most advanced air defenses Nicosia has ever fielded.
Other notable advancements in the air defense of the broader region took place in Egypt. It recently reached a deal with the United States for the NASAMS system, which launches the AIM-120 missile that Cairo has sought for decades for its F-16 fighters.
Furthermore, Egypt has also reportedly received HQ-9B missile systems from China this year. The strategic Chinese system is the longest-range surface-to-air missile system Cairo has acquired since the S-300VM from Russia in the 2010s. According to regional media outlets, Egypt recently deployed the Chinese system, which has a purported range exceeding 100 miles, to the Sinai Peninsula near the Gaza Strip and Israel.