Fed decision looms: Why Bitcoin investors are playing it safe

Key Takeaways

What are the key positive drivers for a potential Bitcoin rally?

Easing global economic uncertainty, renewed investor interest from Korea, and optimism for a Fed rate cut.

Why are some investors still showing caution?

Institutional buying has slowed, and uncertainty remains regarding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.

Bitcoin [BTC] is showing signs of a positive global outlook as the asset gradually builds strength for a renewed rally.

However, doubt still lingers across the market on whether to accumulate the digital asset despite improving macroeconomic sentiment.

Economic data points to Bitcoin rally

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has been easing, according to the latest report from Alphractal. A decline in this metric has often coincided with a positive market outlook, as risk capital returns to the market.

The chart above shows a comparison with the S&P 500, which typically moves in parallel with assets like Bitcoin.

Source: Alphractal

Curvo shows that Bitcoin has returned 69.5% while the S&P 500 gained just 10.1%—a trend also evident in previous cycles, suggesting Bitcoin could outperform the S&P 500 if current conditions persist.

Korean investors appear to be leading the accumulation trend, as reflected in the Korean Premium Index, which points to renewed buying activity.

This follows a brief decline in interest; however, sentiment has since turned bullish and could continue in that direction.

Growth ahead, but investors remain cautious

Short-term holder (STH) data, often used to identify Bitcoin’s compression or expansion phases, currently hints at expansion.

The STH-SOPR, when aligned with Bollinger Bands, confirms that the price has moved beyond the middle band and is trending upward.

Historically, this has been a growth signal, suggesting Bitcoin may be on track for a significant price upswing, capped near 1.02 in the short term.

Source: CryptoQuant

However, the rally could take time to materialize as institutional investors—typically key drivers of Bitcoin demand—have slowed their purchases.

Glassnode data shows that daily buying among these investors has dropped from an average of over 2,500 BTC per day to below 1,000 BTC, potentially impacting Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Fed to the rescue?

Many investors remain on the sidelines as the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting approaches.

A recent AMBCrypto analysis noted that markets largely expect a 25 bps rate cut—a move that could inject more capital into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Still, investors remain cautious, trimming their Bitcoin exposure in the short term amid uncertainty over whether the Fed will take a hawkish or dovish stance.

Source: CoinGlass

Over the past two days, retail spot investors have sold roughly $56 million worth of BTC.

However, such moderate sell-offs often indicate that investors are neither bearish nor pricing in major downside risks—a sentiment that remains net positive for Bitcoin.

Shawn Young, MEXC’s Chief Analyst, told AMBCrypto that investors are avoiding any clear directional bias amid an increasingly uncertain market environment.

“Muted institutional and retail participation in Bitcoin, despite the widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate decision, signals growing liquidity caution in today’s volatile macro landscape.”