Bitcoin Steadies Above $110K as Fed Cuts Rates by 25 bps

• Bitcoin price faces overhead supply at $116,000 resistance, signaling a risk of continued market correction.
• In a 10-to-2 decision, the FOMC moved to trim its benchmark lending rate to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%.
• The BTC fear and greed index at 51% accentuates a neutral sentiment in the market.

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, in line with market expectations, to bolster the job market. Following the announcement, the crypto market shows a bullish rebound as reflected in Bitcoin’s price reversal from $109,265 to its current trading price of $111,490. However, the market sentiment witnessed immediate headwinds as Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw doubts on whether another interest rate reduction will come in December.

Fed Cuts Rates by 25 bps, Signals Caution Ahead of December Decision

The Federal Reserve cut its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its second rate cut in 2025. Recent data reveal that the U.S. economy is growing at a modest pace, job growth has decelerated, and the unemployment rate has risen slightly but still remains low. Inflation has been on the increase since earlier in the year and is still high. The Committee reconfirmed its long-run objectives of maximum employment and a 2% inflation target.

Along with the rate cut, the Fed said it will end it program of reducing aggregate securities holdings (quantitative tightening) on December 1. The Committee noted that it will continue to closely watch data coming in—including on the labor market, pressures and expectations of inflation, financial conditions, and developments across the international system – and is prepared to adjust policy if conditions justify.

In his post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell tried to defuse market expectations of another rate cut at the December meeting. Speaking of the talks that supposedly had to start in December, Powell said there were “strongly differing views about how to proceed” and it was “far from a foregone conclusion.” His comments were at odds with recent market pricing that had suggested a high probability of another policy stimulus towards the end of the year.

Powell accepted that the current climate makes the decision-making process more difficult, especially considering there is a “very high level of uncertainty,” and there may be gaps in the reporting of government data. He stated that such conditions might call for more prudence in the short term. 

The Fed stated that future decision-making will be informed by changing data on employment, inflation, and, more generally, financial conditions, continuing to operate in a data-dependent manner as it moves through an uneven economic landscape.

Bitcoin Price Wavers in Uncertainty Within Channel Pattern

Despite the market optimism on a Fed rate cut, the Bitcoin price showed a bearish reversal from $116,175 to $111,646—a 4% decrease—in the last three days. This pullback signals intense overhead supply and a risk of continued consolidation as the U.S.-China trade talks are still progressing.

If the broader selling pressure persists, the Bitcoin price could plunge nearly 9% and test the bottom trendline of the expanding channel pattern. The chart setup inherently indicates market uncertainty and a lack of initiation from buyers or sellers.

However, if coming days reflect intact demand pressure above the $100,000 floor, the buyers will attempt a bullish breakout from $116,000. If successful, the buying momentum will accelerate, and the Bitcoin price could chase a new high in November.

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