‘The era of MSTR carrying Bitcoin higher is over,’ says analyst – Here’s why

Key Takeaways

Why is Bitcoin’s low volatility bad for Saylor’s leveraged play? 

It reduces the demand for convertible debt used by Strategy to buy more BTC. 

How could this affect the BTC value? 

Per Coinbase analysts, it could drive short-term caution. 

The Bitcoin [BTC] price has become less volatile recently, which could impact Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). In fact, the 90-Day Volatility Index (which tracks price swings over a 90-day period) declined to record lows in 2025.

Experts have linked the reduced price swings to increasing institutionalization of the asset via ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and corporate treasuries. 

How will Saylor’s Strategy affect BTC value?

Unfortunately, the low volatility trend could also affect Michael Saylor’s Strategy BTC buying plans, noted analyst Alex Kruger. 

“Volatility declining makes these options (embedded in convertible debt) less valuable, forcing MSTR to offer less favorable terms, which hampers its ability to scale Bitcoin holdings.”

Source: X

He added that the “era of MSTR” carrying BTC higher is over.

Strategy (MSTR) traditionally relied on convertible debt and equity offerings to fund BTC purchases. When volatility was high, the embedded call options in those convertibles increased in value, giving Strategy cheaper leverage to accumulate BTC.

But the muted volatility would trigger the opposite and affect one of Strategy’s capital raising plans for BTC buys. 

Source: X

The firm may be left with equity offerings to fund next BTC buys if the trend continues. 

But the mNAV (market net asset value) or relative value of the underlying BTC holdings has also dropped to 1.1X. If the metric slips below 1, capital raising via stock sell-off could also hit the wall. Overall, this could derail Strategy’s BTC buying spree. 

Since the massive $21K BTC overhaul in July, Strategy’s accumulation has slumped in H2, too. 

DAT demand fades as Strategy’s accumulation stalls

Source: CryptoQuant

In fact, Coinbase analysts warned that BTC’s demand from digital asset treasury companies (DATs) was absent in the past two weeks and could affect BTC’s short-term recovery. 

“DAT buying hasn’t shown up for BTC and is narrowly concentrated for ETH, which highlights some caution from large players post leverage washout, even at current “support” levels.”

Source: Coinbase

Per the attached chart, BTC DATs recorded significant demand in August.

The bids in September were marginal, while in October, they nearly disappeared altogether. In fact, retail players have lost over $17 billion on the DATs. 

As one of the largest demand lines for BTC, alongside ETFs, the waning DATs’ activity could be a short-term risk for the asset, added Coinbase analysts. 

“We think this warrants more cautious positioning in the short term, because the market appears more fragile when the biggest discretionary balance sheets are sidelined.”

Meanwhile, BTC traded at $111.6K as of writing, ahead of key macro updates including the Fed rate decision and the U.S.-China tariff meeting.