NEWPORT NEWS, VA – APRIL 8: In this handout photo provided by the U.S. Navy, sailors aboard the aircraft carrier Pre-Commissioning Unit (PCU) Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) man the rails as the ship departs Huntington Ingalls Industries Newport News Shipbuilding for builder’s sea trials off the U.S. East Coast on April 8, 2017 in Newport News, Virginia. The first-of-class ship, the first new U.S. aircraft carrier design in 40 years, will spend several days conducting builder’s sea trials, a comprehensive test of many of the ship’s key systems and technologies. (Photo by Chief Mass Communication Specialist Christopher Delano/U.S. Navy via Getty Images)
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On Friday it was announced that US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth had ordered the deployment of the aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford (alongside other warships and attack planes) to the waters off the coast of Latin America. Since late August about 10,000 US military troops have been deployed to the Caribbean, with half on warships and the other half stationed in Puerto Rico. Another ten F-35 fighter jets were also sent to Puerto Rico in early September.
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies called this deployment of the Ford aircraft carrier “one step closer to war” with Venezuela. Trump has repeatedly raised the possibility of a conflict with Venezuela, stating that the US may take “land action” now that the sea is “under control.”
The Trump administration has justified the buildup by accusing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of running a large-scale drug operation with the country’s most notorious criminal group, Tren de Araguas, allegations Maduro denies. Though a leaked intelligence memo has cast doubt that there is any cooperation between Maduro and Tren de Araguas, the Trump administration has claimed that Maduro emptied Venezuela’s prisons and remains involved in the drug trade.
The Trump administration has already carried out ten strikes of supposed drug boats in the Caribbean, killing 43 people in the process despite little evidence that the targeted vessels were trafficking narcotics.
It’s also unclear how effective it will be to send over an aircraft carrier to the Caribbean to engage in drug interdiction. The US Navy reportedly has 11 aircraft carriers , with the Ford class debuting more recently (the other ten aircraft carriers are Nimitz class). The Ford constitutes the most expensive warship ever built, costing $13 billion.
While formidable in combat, aircraft carriers are not well suited for surveillance activity. Their high-speed fighter jets, such as F/A-18E/Fs and F-35Cs, are not designed for the slow, persistent monitoring that countering narcotics operations requires.
Though the Ford is the largest nuclear-powered super carrier ever built, it can be vulnerable to low-tech threats from both undersea unmanned vehicles and aerial unmanned vehicles – or drones. The 2000 attack on the USS Cole in 2000 is a reminder that it does not take much to do considerable damage. Equipped with complex technology, it is also expensive to maintain and could be vulnerable to cyber attacks.
The administration claims that the deployment of the Ford will help target criminal organizations such as Tren de Aragua, which was designated an international terrorist organization last year and has about 5,000 members. Nevertheless, if the goal is to pursue drug cartels, it’s not clear if Tren de Aragua is the right target.
For decades Venezuelan groups have been involved in smaller scale organized crime, but Tren De Aragua is the only Venezuelan group to have projected its power internationally. Originating in a Venezuelan prison in Tocorón in the early 2010s, by 2018 the criminal group expanded to the Colombian border and eventually across parts of South America. But while the Mexican and Colombian criminal groups dominate the drug trade, Tren de Aragua has mostly focused on human trafficking and the exploitation of Venezuela migrants.
In spite of the Trump administration’s assertions, Venezuela does not play a huge role in the region’s drug trade; nearly all coca crop cultivation is still concentrated in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. There is also no evidence that Tren de Aragua is involved in the movement of fentanyl. Additionally, the DEA estimates that only 8% of cocaine trafficked to the US passes through Venezuela.
Moreover, while Tren de Araguas has expanded its footprint in human trafficking, it does not have any capacity to invade another country, and its strength appears to be waning (the US recently declared that it is at war with the drug cartels). In 2023, the Venezuelan government finally took control of the Tocorón prison, which effectively deprived the criminal group of its stronghold. Though Maduro had initially offered government protection, his relationship with the gang ruptured.
Tren De Aragua has also clashed with the Colombian guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army and has been in conflict with other gangs such as MS-13, and with its own former members, who call themselves Anti-Tren.
The recent arrest of several of Tren de Aragua’s high-ranking leaders in Colombia caused disarray in the organization, disrupting some of its transnational operations. Tren de Araguas faced another blow on October 14th, when one of its alleged leaders died after falling from a building during a police raid in Colombia. Contrary to reports that the group is gaining more power, it is actually becoming more fragmented. It is also unlikely to regain strength because of so much attention from law enforcement.
While copycat groups of Tren de Aragua have emerged throughout South America, which has made it difficult to track when the criminal group is responsible, it’s nowhere near as powerful as the major Colombian and Mexican drug cartels.
Beyond the military option
Possibly more effective than bringing over an aircraft carrier would be to put more effort into prosecuting the businesses sponsoring criminal groups, and their political patrons at all levels of government. Organized criminal groups are involved in a wide range of activities besides drugs, and targeting all their operations beyond drugs, will help to weaken them. As the Brookings Institution reports, this includes prosecuting those involved in the middle operational layer of these groups such as financiers, money launderers and those involved in logistical operations.
It’s also crucial to tackle the factors that are driving human insecurity in Venezuela. Because migrants in Venezuela are so vulnerable, this provided Tren de Aragua with an opportunity to expand its criminal enterprises. As such, the United Nations Development Program Report has emphasized investing in long-term development in healthcare, education and job creation to provide economic opportunities to those that may be easily exploited by criminal groups engaged in human trafficking– and drug trafficking as well.
In 2022 the US provided about $2.8 billion in development aid for the entire region, but this aid is now being cut. This is far less than the program to construct multiple Ford aircraft carriers, which will cost upwards of $120 billion.