4 Reasons Meteorologists Are Concerned About Tropical Storm Melissa

Tropical Storm Melissa on October 22, 2025 in the central Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Tidbits website and NOAA

Tropical Storm Melissa is the thirteenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. That may be a surprising fact for many readers. Most of those storms have not impacted the U.S. mainland or made landfall, which means “out of sight out of mind for many people.” Meteorologists are currently watching Tropical Storm Melissa as it slowly drifts in the central Caribbean Sea. Here are four reasons why we are concerned about it.

It’s Going To Meander All Week

The storm is moving very slowly and is expected to meander around for days. A Hurricane Watch is in effect across the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from Port-Au-Prince to the border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the island of Jamaica. It would not surprise me if that is ultimately converted to a hurricane watch later this week. According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Melissa is near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 73.5 West and moving at only 2 mph as of Wednesday morning.

The steering currents are relatively weak, which causes the meandering nature of the storm. That also presents uncertainty in the forecast and the rather vague hurricane cone. On Wednesday morning NHC wrote, “There continues to be a very
large uncertainty on whether the storm would turn more into the weakness and threaten Haiti or Cuba, or whether it would turn more westward to the south of Jamaica as a ridge rebuilds over the Bahamas, with reliable models in either camp.”

There is quite a bit of uncertainty, which means the cone above looks more like a circle even several days out. NHC went on to say, “The model trends have been favoring the more westward solutions recently, and the official forecast is nudged in that direction at long range.”

It Is Expected To Become A Hurricane And Potentially A Strong One.

Melissa is expected to continue its slow forward speed and turn to the northwest at some point. The storm will approach Haiti and Jamaica later in the week. It is also expected to become a hurricane before the weekend. Of concern to me and other meteorologists, some of the model guidance suggests that the storm could intensify to major hurricane status and on the stronger end of the range of category 3 to category 5. NHC cautioned, “While there is still a large forecast intensity uncertainty, the chances of a major hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest
at long range, similar to many of the recent regional hurricane model forecasts.” Right now, the storm is experiencing wind shear, but some reliable models relax that in time. The ultimate track forecast will determine intensity trends, so we will be watching this one all week.

The Impacts

With such a lingering, slowly intensifying storm, I also worry about sustained flooding, landslides, mudslides, swells, and wind impacts for Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba and the Dominican Republic. In its public advisory NHC warned that Melissa could produce up to 10 inches of rain in these regions but that could be higher depending on the eventual track and local terrain effects. People should prepare for flooding, landslides and wind impacts later this week into the weekend.

Plenty Of Warm Water

Is this unusual to have a storm this late into October? The answer is “no.” According to National Hurricane Center statistics, we typically get the thirteenth named storm of the Atlantic season on October 25. Melissa formed a few days ahead of “schedule.” Unfortunately, there is plenty of warm water in the basin as we approach late October. If wind shear relaxes, Melissa has plenty of warm water to feed on.

The average number of named storms is 14, and NOAA predicted 13 to 19 total named storms in the 2025 season. Remember, climatology is based on the number of storms not how many made landfall or received media coverage. So far, we are trending towards a normal to slightly-above normal season with several days left in it.