Bitcoin’s 2 failed rallies raise doubts – Is BTC out of fuel?

Key takeaways

Are Bitcoin whales selling or accumulating?

Despite recent inflows, long-term netflows turned negative, so whales are accumulating.

Is Bitcoin gaining strength again?

Not yet. Two failed rallies and weak futures flows mean bulls are losing momentum.

Bitcoin [BTC] is holding key support, but the bulls are losing steam.

Despite a spike in whale inflows to Binance last week, long-term netflows have turned negative. Two recent attempts to regain momentum failed.

With price trading below its 30-day Fair Value and futures flows weakening, buyer strength looks exhausted. The market may be rebalancing before BTC’s next major move.

Whale inflows rise as BTC cools off

Binance data shows that BTC whales have been unusually active lately. The 7-day average of whale inflows (1,000-10,000 BTC) rose sharply last week, reaching levels last seen in July.

This typically happens when big players move coins to exchanges, possibly to rebalance portfolios or take profits.

Source: CryptoQuant

Interestingly, this uptick in inflows comes as Bitcoin’s price cools from its $124K high to the $104K-$110K range. Institutions aren’t backing off just yet, but they might simply be getting ready for what comes next.

Bulls lose their grip

After two failed comeback attempts on the 13th and the 20th of October, Bitcoin’s bullish energy seems to be running out.

Market analyst Axel Adler noted in an X (formerly Twitter) post that while the first push looked promising, it lost steam quickly. The second lacked any real strength to begin with.

Source: X

The key momentum index remains stuck below 45, firmly in bearish territory, while BTC continues to trade under its 30-day Fair Value.

Buyers are tired, and the market may be pausing before deciding BTC’s next big move.

Selling pressure cools

But there is a small sign of optimism.

Source: CryptoQuant

Binance’s Bitcoin netflows have turned sharply negative, meaning more BTC is leaving the exchange than coming in. Investors are certainly more confident, as coins moved off exchanges are often meant for long-term holding.

This could be the start of accumulation. Long-term buyers are stepping in, even as short-term traders pull back.