FedWatch Report Shows 99% Chance of October Rate Cut

On October 21, 2025, CME’s ‘FedWatch’ indicated a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction by the Federal Reserve in October.

This projection fuels major asset moves, reflecting heightened anticipation of liquidity changes and market volatility influenced by anticipated macroeconomic shifts.

FedWatch Signals 99% Likelihood of October Rate Cut

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, has previously communicated significant indicators, including halting balance sheet reductions. Amidst these signs, cryptocurrency exchanges and major institutional investors are preparing for changes. On October 21, 2025, the CME’s “FedWatch” tool projected a near certainty for a rate cut, stirring wide market intrigue.

Consequent actions could accommodate liquidity enhancement and spur significant market volatility. Institutional investors and whales have initiated large-scale movements to balance portfolios. For example, a whale transferred 610 million USDC into the crypto economy, anticipating Fed-driven adjustments.

“Fed Chair Powell hinted earlier this month that he is waiting for the right time to end the balance sheet reduction, and last week’s slight turbulence in the repurchase market may be a key signal.” – Jerome Powell, Chair, Federal Reserve

Cryptocurrency Movements Align with Rate Cut Speculation

Did you know? In past easing cycles, Bitcoin and Ethereum often saw substantial surges, driven by improved monetary policy conditions and heightened market activity.

Bitcoin, currently priced at $110,505.11, holds a market cap of $2.20 trillion, per CoinMarketCap data. Despite recent market turbulence, Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume increased by 22.01%, though the cryptocurrency’s 90-day performance shows a 7.61% decline. These metrics underscore changing financial climates impacting virtual assets.

Historical patterns, as identified by Coincu’s research team, highlight cryptocurrency performance during rate shifts. Continued institutional alignment with anticipated policy changes may confirm ongoing trends. Long-term growth prospects could emerge if regulatory and financial adjustments proceed, aligning with previous reactions during easing phases.