ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 03: Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates with Baker Mayfield #6 after scoring a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on October 03, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
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For the second consecutive week, an exciting Monday night doubleheader wraps up the NFL slate. The Buccaneers and Lions do battle at Ford Field in the early window, while a Texans-Seahawks interconference clash serves as the nightcap.
Here are three player prop bets to consider placing before Monday night’s action kicks off:
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Over 4.5 receptions (-131 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The price on this prop is heftier at several other sportsbooks, but DK’s figure is reasonable and the statistical threshold is one a presumably healthy Evans has a good chance of clearing. The talented wideout has missed the last three games due to a hamstring strain, but he managed to work back to a full practice Saturday and weekend reports noted he’s expected to play.
Meanwhile, Evans’ position mate Chris Godwin is ruled out due to a fibula injury, and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka is listed as questionable due to his own Week 6 hamstring strain and likely to be limited if he does play. It all lines up for Evans to have to hit the ground running – literally – if he does return, and the good news is he’ll be doing so against a Lions secondary that’s arguably thinner than the Buccaneers’ receiver corps.
Detroit will once again be missing cornerbacks Terrion Arnold (shoulder), D.J. Reed (IR, hamstring), and Avonte Maddox (hamstring). Then, starting safeties Kerby Joseph (knee) and Brian Branch (suspension) will also be sidelined, leaving the Lions with a true skeleton crew – perhaps appropriate given the late-October timeframe – on the back end of their defense.
Evans recorded five catches apiece in the only two non-injury-shortened games he’s played thus far this season, and that was with a full-strength Egbuka next to him. The perennial Pro Bowler should be a focal point of Baker Mayfield on Monday night in a game the Buccaneers know they’ll have to remain aggressive in, making this a very viable prop to jump in on.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
- Over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
Williams props can be a bit of a rollercoaster ride for bettors, as the electric receiver always has the potential to help cash a ticket on one play thanks to his speed. However, Williams’ usage in the Lions’ high-powered offense can also be erratic, considering the rich array of talent Detroit enjoys at the skill positions.
Nevertheless, this yardage total is certainly one within Williams’ reach, as he already has 108- and 66-yard tallies this season. He’s also come close to this figure on two other occasions with 40- and 43-yard efforts, and he’s encouragingly logged at least five targets in three of his first six games.
Williams happens to be coming off his busiest game of the season as well, posting a 6-66-1 receiving line on seven targets against the Chiefs back in Week 6. Monday night, the 2022 first-round pick is back on the fast track of Ford Field and facing a Buccaneers defense that’s surrendered a robust 11.9 yards per completion on the road, the league’s second-highest figure in that split.
It’s worth noting Williams has thrived against this Todd Bowles Bucs defense in each of the last two seasons, posting a combined seven receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets over two games while eclipsing this prop’s yardage total in each. Tampa Bay is healthier in the secondary than it was earlier in the season, but Williams is certainly capable of beating the man coverage they play at just under a 40% clip and is laying claim to just under 40% of the Lions’ air yards.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
- Over 71.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Collins has gotten his season off to a solid start, posting a 22-312-3 receiving line on 36 targets over his first five games. The fifth-year wideout already has five receptions of 20+ yards among those 22 catches, including one of 40+, and he’s laying claim to an impressive 37.% of the Texans’ air yards, per RotoWire. Collins should be refreshed coming out of the Texans’ Week 6 bye, and he also lines up for a busy night in the Pacific Northwest for a number of reasons.
To begin with, the Seahawks have been excellent at stopping the run, limiting running backs to a paltry 3.7 yards per carry and giving up just 79.0 rushing yards per game overall. Consequently, it’s not surprising to learn Seattle is facing the league’s third-highest opponent pass-play rate (63.2%) and has facilitated an average of 19.8 targets and 142.8 yards per game to wide receivers specifically.
Additionally, the Seahawks have been running an aggressive air attack under Sam Darnold, who’s averaging a career-high 9.6 yards per attempt and already has 24 completions of 20+ yards. The quick-strike ability Seattle’s offense has shown paired with its defense’s recalcitrance against the run has often helped lead to teams taking to the air frequently, and Collins, as C.J. Stroud’s most trusted target, could certainly benefit.
Finally, it’s worth noting the Seahawks’ defense’s coverage tendencies dovetail particularly well with Collins’ skill set. The Michigan product has performed best against zone coverage throughout his career, and Seattle checks in playing zone at a 69.6% clip, the NFL’s fifth-highest rate. Meanwhile, Collins has a solid 23.1% target rate versus zone this season and is averaging an impressive 2.9 yards per route run and 12.5 yards per target against that coverage as well.