Michael Saylor hints at Strategy’s next Bitcoin buy

Strategy founder Michael Saylor seems to be hinting that the Bitcoin treasury’s next purchase may be coming soon, despite the drop in net asset values.

According to a recent post on his official X account, Strategy’s Chairman Michael Saylor appears to be foreshadowing when the next Bitcoin purchase will be. He shared a chart showcasing the Bitcoin treasury firm’s current BTC holdings to his 4.5 million followers with a caption that seems to hint at the next big move.

The orange dots depicted on the chart mark the number of times that the firm executed a Bitcoin (BTC) purchase. More often than not, the firm completed purchases when the asset’s price was on the rise.

“The most important orange dot is always the next,” said Michael Saylor in his latest post.

At press time, Strategy remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world, with holdings amounting to 640,250 BTC or equal to more than 3% of the total supply of BTC. Based on current market prices, the treasury firm’s trove is currently valued at more than $71 billion, with an average cost for each BTC at $74,000.

On Oct. 20, Bitcoin has bounced back from the continued downward pressure, rising by 4.24% in the past 24 hours. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading hands at $111,259, having climbed back up from its previous slump under $110,000. However, it has been on a 3% decline since last week.

The last Bitcoin purchase made by Michael Saylor’s Strategy occurred on Oct. 13. The Bitcoin treasury company added 220 BTC to its reserves between Oct. 6 and Oct. 12. The purchase cost the company around $27.2 million with an average price of $123,561 per BTC.

The funds mostly came from its STRF, STRK, and STRD perpetual preferred stock vehicles.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy under pressure

According to data from StrategyTracker, Strategy’s market-to-Net-Asset-Value has fallen to a year-long low. On Oct. 20, the firm’s mNAV based on diluted shares stood at 1.30x, the lowest its been all year. Meanwhile, its basic shares stand at an mNAV of 1.17x.

The higher the mNAV, the easier it would be for Bitcoin treasury companies to raise capital through share sales for purchasing BTC. However, a low mNAV may mean that issuing new equity becomes less accretive. It may even risk diluting existing shareholders instead of enhancing value.

In the past, Strategy has tied its actions to particular mNAV bands in its guidance. For example, if mNAV managed to break above 4x, then it would choose to “actively issue” shares to buy Bitcoin. On the other hand, if it falls below 1x, the firm may consider other strategies such as repurchases.

Not only that, the MSTR stock has also been caught up in bearish momentum ever since the crypto market started experiencing a series of consecutive crashes. The stock’s price has gone down 13.71% in the past month and saw a continued 5.20% downturn within the past five days.

However, Michael Saylor’s post which signaled investors that the firm may be gearing up for another Bitcoin purchase seems to have reawakened market confidence. In the past 24 hours, the stock has seen modest gains, rising by 2.12%.

The market may be anticipating another Strategy purchase after a week of no activity. The action could boost the price of Bitcoin, which has slipped below $120,000 and dropped lower near the $100,000 threshold before slowly rebounding to above $110,000.