The $17B Bitcoin illusion – How retail holders paid for corporate ‘innovation’

Key Takeaways

Who bore the brunt of the Bitcoin DAT bubble burst?

Retail investors, who lost an estimated $17 billion after buying shares in MSTR, Metaplanet, and other Bitcoin DAT firms at inflated prices.

What’s the broader impact on BTC treasuries?

Overvalued DATs labeled as “bubbles” have begun to burst, putting Bitcoin’s institutional credibility at risk.

On paper, more and more companies adding Bitcoin [BTC] to their treasuries looks like a big win for investors, showing that BTC is being taken seriously as a “store of value” by institutions.

As evidence, Bitwise used hard data to highlight this trend.

During Q3, the number of corporate Bitcoin holders rose 38% to 172, as 48 new companies joined the club. Together, these companies purchased 176,000 BTC, bringing the total corporate stash to just over 1 million BTC.

Strategy leads corporate holdings

Source: BitcoinTreasuries.net

Focusing on the top holders, Strategy [MSTR] stood out, with over 640,000 BTC in its treasury. Technically, that’s nearly 13 times the size of MARA Holdings [MARA], the second-largest corporate holder.

On paper, MSTR’s Bitcoin-focused strategy appeared to have delivered performance that even outpaces the “Magnificent 7” stocks in annualized return, highlighting the effectiveness of its corporate treasury approach.

That said, some analysts are raising caution. 

Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, warned that the growing bubble in DATs (Digital Asset Treasuries) “may already have burst.” If so, could Bitcoin’s biggest institutional dream now be spiraling toward its biggest nightmare?

$17B in losses shine spotlight on Bitcoin’s DAT fragility

Is the age of financial magic ending for Bitcoin treasury companies?

According to a recent report by 10x Research, the reality may be tougher than most investors think.

Specifically, retail investors have collectively lost an estimated $17 billion by gaining exposure to BTC through DAT firms.

The report spotlighted how these firms sold shares at premiums.

For example, investors buying into MSTR or Metaplanet at high premiums lost money when share prices fell, leading to big losses for retail investors.

Source: 10x Research

As the chart showed, during the “boom” phase, Metaplanet looked very profitable on paper because its shares were sold far above the actual value of the Bitcoin it held, and investor hype drove buying at inflated prices.

However, when the “bust” hit, share prices corrected sharply, and the Net Asset Value (NAV) of these treasuries dropped, leaving investors facing real losses instead of the inflated gains they had expected.

So, while executives walked away with profits, investors bore the brunt. 

Overall, these overvalued DATs, labeled as “bubbles,” have begun to burst, putting BTC’s institutional credibility at risk. Investors are now rethinking their exposure to them, marking the potential start of their decline.