Bitcoin (BTC) is holding firm above the $102,000 support level, signaling renewed investor confidence as liquidity-driven market dynamics replace the traditional 4-year cycle narrative.
The cryptocurrency’s resilience comes amid rising expectations of Fed easing and a shift in macro liquidity flows that continue to support long-term bullish momentum. Analysts suggest Bitcoin’s structural trend remains strong, even as debates around the halving model lose traction in favor of broader economic forces.
Bitcoin Holds Key Support Amid Macro Shifts
Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating above the crucial $102,000 support level as macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policy shifts reshape market expectations. As of October 16, Bitcoin trades around $111,000, according to Brave New Coin data, after a brief correction of roughly 2.7% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $108,022, down 2.75% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin Price via Brave New Coin
Despite recent volatility, BTC remains up nearly 70% year-to-date, supported by growing ETF inflows, sustained institutional interest, and anticipation of prolonged monetary easing in the United States.
Liquidity Emerges as the New Market Narrative
Market analysts are increasingly questioning the relevance of the traditional four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, suggesting that liquidity, not block rewards, is now the key driver of Bitcoin’s price performance. Crypto trader @TedPillows wrote on X, “The $BTC 4-year cycle is most likely over. The Fed has now started to do monetary easing, which means Bitcoin could peak in 2026.”
Forget the 4-year cycle—it’s all about liquidity now, and the Fed’s easing may push Bitcoin’s next peak into 2026. Source: @TedPillows via X
Ted’s accompanying chart, which plots Bitcoin’s historical cycles since 2012, shows how each bull market phase has gradually extended over time. Early post-halving rallies lasted roughly 14 months, while recent ones have stretched to 18 months or longer. The ongoing cycle, which began after the April 2024 halving, now appears poised to continue into mid-2026—a scenario supported by increasing global liquidity and declining interest rates.
Fed Easing Boosts Risk Appetite
The Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut of the current cycle in September, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.0%–4.25%, with markets now pricing in additional reductions toward 3.5%–3.75% by year-end. Analysts suggest this easing could benefit risk assets such as Bitcoin by encouraging capital flows into speculative markets.
ETF demand remains another critical factor. Spot Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale continue to absorb significant inflows, signaling that institutional participation is deepening. Combined ETF holdings now account for a growing share of total BTC supply, underpinning market stability despite short-term volatility.
Technical Structure Points to Continued Upside
In a separate post, @TedPillows highlighted Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave structure, which he believes outlines an extended five-wave bull pattern. “As long as the $102,000 level holds, Bitcoin will be in a bull run. If BTC closes a monthly candle below that support, I would be concerned,” he said.
Bitcoin’s bull run stays intact as long as the $102K support holds—a monthly close below it could change the game. Source: @TedPillows via X
The chart suggests that the fourth wave—representing the current consolidation phase—has likely found support, setting the stage for a potential fifth wave toward $200,000 or higher by mid-2026.
While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions on higher timeframes, technical analysts maintain that Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains bullish unless the $102,000 threshold is breached.
Price Forecasts Diverge as 2026 Approaches
Forecasts for Bitcoin’s 2026 price remain widely split. Standard Chartered projects a conservative range between $130,000–$150,000, while Fundstrat anticipates a breakout toward $200,000–$250,000 if ETF momentum and macro tailwinds persist.
Bitcoin’s road to $150K–$200K remains on track as long as $102K support holds, fueled by strong market structure and liquidity. Source: toptrader_X on TradingView
More optimistic projections—driven by models that account for liquidity expansion—suggest BTC could reach $300,000–$500,000, though analysts caution that a sudden reversal in monetary policy or a BTC liquidation event could disrupt the trajectory.