Why Bitcoin Price Tested $111K as Gold Rose 6% In October

Bitcoin (BTC USD) price today fell after tariff headlines sparked a risk-off move across markets. The pullback followed short-term selling and a rotation toward safe-haven assets.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price was around $111,195, and the 14-day RSI was near 44, while the MACD histogram was negative.

These readings suggested fading momentum during the latest leg lower. Over the last 24 hours, the token fell 0.73%.

It was down 8.96% over the past week and 4.02% over the past month. The all-time high stood near $125,198.

Why Bitcoin Price Slid After Tariff Headlines

Santiment described the decline as an “overreaction” to President Donald Trump’s temporary tariff threats. The comments hit risk assets and pushed traders toward hedges.

Cross-asset data reflected that shift. Since October 6, Bitcoin (BTC USD) fell about 11.8%, the S&P 500 slipped roughly 1.2%, and gold gained near 6.0%. That pattern aligned with a classic flight-to-safety response.

Flows backed the sentiment story. Between October 13 and 15, short-term holders moved about 56,000 BTC to exchanges. That behavior often occurs when traders lock in losses during stress.

Santiment’s Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, dropped below 1.0. SOPR tracks whether coins spent on a given day realize profit or loss.

Values below 1.0 indicate loss-realization. Historically, extended prints below roughly 0.975 have preceded heavier selling as fear builds.

The backdrop also included recency. BTC set a record high near $125,198 nine days earlier. Fast reversals after peaks often catch late buyers and amplify profit taking.

Bitcoin Price Technicals Show Weakening Momentum

The trend picture softened as Bitcoin (BTC USD) price slipped under the 30-day simple moving average. That average sat near $116,000 during the drop.

A move under a short-term average often signals fading trend strength. Price also hovered around the 200-day exponential moving average near $108,000.

The 200-day EMA tracks longer trend direction by weighting recent prices more heavily. Bulls typically defend this region to preserve the uptrend.

Momentum indicators pointed lower. The RSI near 44 stayed below the typical midline of 50. That reading showed neither extreme fear nor strength, yet it leaned negative.

The MACD histogram, which measures the distance between two trend averages, printed deeper negatives. That pattern suggested bearish momentum accelerated into the dip.

Market structure aligned with those signals. The drop under the 30-day average confirmed short-term weakness.

The cluster near the 200-day EMA offered the next critical test on the BTC price chart. If that zone held, momentum could stabilize before the next attempt higher.

Order flow and realized-loss data supported cautious interpretation. SOPR under 1.0 showed traders accepted losses to de-risk.

If that pressure eased, the market could find equilibrium around major averages. If it persisted, sellers could attempt a push toward deeper retracement levels.

Immediate resistance stood around $115,000, which aligned with a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent leg.

Fibonacci levels are reference points many traders watch after strong moves. A daily close over roughly $119,000, the 23.6% retracement, would challenge the bearish setup and open space toward prior highs.

What Could Shift the Setup Next Week

Two forces could change the tone. First, behavior by short-term holders may normalize. If exchange inflows from those wallets slow, realized-loss pressure could fade.

That would reduce supply overhang and allow price discovery above nearby resistance. Second, macro tone could stabilize. The earlier tariff headlines jolted risk assets and lifted gold.

If that shock waned, correlations could revert. During calmer conditions, BTC has often traded with tech-heavy equities rather than safe havens.

Traders will track three markers. The first is the 200-day EMA near $108,000. Holding above that level would preserve the longer uptrend. The second is SOPR.

A sustained move back above 1.0 would show profit-taking rather than loss-cutting. The third is breadth across spot and derivatives. Narrow selling led by short-term wallets would differ from broad deleveraging.

The Fibonacci map framed nearby pivots on the BTC price chart. Resistance sat near $115,000. A break and daily close over roughly $119,000 would weaken the bearish structure.

Above that, price could target the prior peak near $125,198 in stages rather than in one move. Risk indicators warranted monitoring but not alarm. RSI stayed mid-range, which left room either way.

Bitcoin (BTC USD) negative MACD histogram called for evidence that momentum was turning. A series of higher lows on shorter timeframes would help confirm that shift.

Cross-asset signals remained relevant. Gold’s near 6% gain since October 6 showed investors sought hedges.

If that bid cooled, risk assets could regain sponsorship. If it persisted, buyers may remain selective until new catalysts emerge.

For now, the path depended on support defense and the response near trend averages. A firm hold above the 200-day EMA would argue for stabilization.

A clean reclaim of the 30-day average would improve the backdrop further. Until then, traders treated bounces into $115,000–$119,000 as tests of supply rather than confirmation of a new leg.

If those hurdles cleared on strong volume, the Bitcoin (BTC USD) price chart structure would change. Failing that, the market could continue to range around the long-term average while it absorbs realized-loss supply from short-term holders.