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BNB, short-term extension signals: levels to monitor

4 hours ago
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In the midst of the full suffering of the crypto market, BNB emerges like a phoenix, continuing to register new ATH.

Multi-timeframe Analysis

D1 (daily)

BNB closes at 1362.12, well above EMA20 (1154.38), EMA50 (1032.54), and EMA200 (823.56): clean bullish structure.

The RSI at 68.27 indicates strength, close to overbought territory but not extreme.

The MACD is above the signal (84.41 vs 72.77) with a positive histogram (11.64): momentum consistent with the trend.

The Bollinger Bands show the price near the upper edge (1385.11) compared to the average (1127.09): extended market, likely consolidation or return towards the average.

The volatility (ATR14) is 113.02: wide daily fluctuations.

Pivot: PP 1340.22, R1 1397.01, S1 1305.34.

H1 (hourly)

Price at 1362.01 above EMA20 (1299.22), EMA50 (1250.21), and EMA200 (1209.44): intraday bullish bias.

RSI 74.52 in overbought: risk of unloading in the short term.

Positive MACD (36.26 vs 34.07; hist 2.19) but without marked acceleration.

The Bollinger Bands indicate a breach of the upper band (1356.65): a typical signal of extension with a possible return towards the median (1307.35).

ATR14 at 25.03: high hourly volatility.

Pivot H1: PP 1357.34, R1 1373.67, S1 1345.68.

M15

Price at 1362.00 with bullish alignment of the averages (EMA20 1338.83, EMA50 1315.27, EMA200 1247.00).

RSI 64.63: positive momentum but less stretched compared to H1.

MACD above the signal (15.79 vs 13.92; hist 1.87).

Bollinger Bands wide (upper 1384.52, mid 1332.82): the price remains below the upper band, indicating an orderly push.

ATR14 at 15.79.

Pivot M15: PP 1360.09, R1 1366.49, S1 1355.61.

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Key Levels

TimeframeSupportsControl Level (PP)Resistances
D1S1 1305.34; EMA20 1154.38; EMA50 1032.54PP 1340.22BB up 1385.11; R1 1397.01
H1S1 1345.68; EMA20 1299.22PP 1357.34BB up 1356.65; R1 1373.67
M15S1 1355.61; EMA20 1338.83PP 1360.09R1 1366.49; BB up 1384.52

Operational Scenarios

Bullish (main scenario)

  • Bias: bullish (D1 bullish regime).
  • Trigger: maintaining above PP D1 1340.22 and above PP H1 1357.34, with extension towards upper BB D1 1385.11 and R1 D1 1397.01.
  • Management: use ATR D1 113.02 for stop/trailing (1.0–1.5x ATR) and EMA20 D1 1154.38 as dynamic support.
  • Invalidation: D1 close below PP 1340.22 or loss of S1 H1 1345.68 and S1 D1 1305.34.

Bearish

  • Bias: technical pullback after H1 extension above BB.
  • Trigger: return below BB up H1 1356.65 and PP H1 1357.34, with target S1 M15 1355.61 and S1 H1 1345.68. In continuation, possible test on PP D1 1340.22 and S1 D1 1305.34.
  • Management: calibrate risk with ATR H1 25.03 (1.0x ATR). Invalidation on close above R1 H1 1373.67.

Neutral

  • Bias: consolidation between PP D1 1340.22 and BB up D1 1385.11.
  • Operations: mean reversion intraday strategies between PP/R1/S1 on M15 (PP 1360.09, R1 1366.49, S1 1355.61), using ATR M15 15.79 for target/stop.
  • Invalidation: breakout above R1 D1 1397.01 (trend continues) or below S1 D1 1305.34 (weakening scenario).

Market Context

The total market capitalization of crypto is 4.03 trillion USD, up by 4.83% in the last 24 hours.

The BTC dominance is 57.01%.

The Fear & Greed Index shows 38 (Fear).

In summary: liquidity and momentum are improving, but sentiment remains cautious. The BNB uptrend on D1 fits into a phase of moderate risk-on, with residual volatility.

BNB Chain DeFi Ecosystem

In the DeFi area, the DEX of the ecosystem stand out:

  • PancakeSwap AMM V3: average daily fees 1.12 billion USD, 30d change +90.49%.
  • PancakeSwap AMM: growth 7d +136.11%, 30d +208.91% (average fees 144 million USD).
  • THENA FUSION: +311.25% (7d), +104.70% (30d).
  • Uniswap V3: +68.24% (30d).

Increased activity on DEX, consistent with a more vibrant trading environment.

In Summary

  • Main bullish scenario on D1: price at 1362.12 above EMA20 (1154.38), EMA50 (1032.54) and EMA200 (823.56).
  • Strong momentum: RSI D1 at 68.27 and positive MACD (hist 11.64), but price near the upper Bollinger band (1385.11).
  • In the short term (H1) price above the upper band (1356.65) with RSI 74.52: risk of pullback/mean reversion towards the pivots.
  • Key Pivot: D1 PP 1340.22, R1 1397.01, S1 1305.34. D1 ATR at 113.02 to calibrate risk.
  • Context: crypto market cap 4.026 trillion USD (+4.83%), BTC dominance 57.01%, sentiment Fear (38).

Disclaimer: analysis for informational purposes only, does not constitute financial advice. Use only the provided data and manage risk with discipline.

Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/10/13/bnb-bullish-trend-on-d1-but-signs-of-extension-in-the-short-term-levels-and-scenarios-to-monitor/