XRP Price Headed to Potentially Bullish Monthly Close

On October 12, 2025, XRP formed its second-longest capitulation wick. Heavy whale outflows above $50 Million accompanied the move as support held near $2.70–$2.80.

While earlier in the day, XRP price was trading around $2.39, down 2.05% in 24 hours, 21.10% over the past week, and 21.74% in the past month. Its all-time high stood at $3.84.

At the time of writing the Ripple had seen some movement, gaining as much as 8.8% in a day, and trading at $2.5.

What the XRP Price Signaled on the Chart

Analyst JD said the 2025 monthly candle showed the second-longest lower wick on record. He added that a higher monthly close could eclipse 2017’s historic wick.

In 2017, the market consolidated for months before a sharp selloff produced a long lower wick. The XRP price then advanced toward about $3.41 after buyers stepped in.

From 2018 through 2020, XRP traded inside a descending triangle. That pattern featured lower highs meeting a relatively flat support base.

The market structure shifted after 2020 as higher lows developed into 2024. By mid-2024, price action broke above long-term resistance and moved into a consolidation range.

The current setup resembled the 2017 build-up. Price action tightened between roughly $1.50 and $2.00 before attempting higher levels.

Egrag Crypto noted that October often leaned bullish for XRP. He counted eight positive Octobers out of thirteen observations in historical data.

A “capitulation wick” referred to a long lower shadow on a candlestick. The wick showed that sellers drove price down before buyers forced a sharp rebound within the same period.

Traders used that signal to spot potential washout lows. The pattern alone did not confirm a trend change, but it often marked exhaustion.

The 2025 wick fit that definition. It suggested a forceful selloff met by equally forceful dip-buying near support.

JD’s framework relied on the candle close to confirm significance. A higher close would keep the analog to 2017 intact.

Whale Flows and the XRP Price Reaction

On-chain data from CryptoQuant showed daily whale outflows above $50 Million since late September. Those outflows pointed to consistent distribution by large holders.

Santiment data indicated that addresses with more than 1,000 XRP reduced balances. The data did not show offsetting inflows back into those wallets.

Analyst Ali Martinez said whales offloaded around 440 Million XRP in recent weeks. That distribution aligned with a drawdown from about $3.40 toward roughly $2.80.

Analysts described the $2.70–$2.80 area as near-term support. Price held that band despite persistent selling from whales.

Whale outflows measured tokens moving from large wallets to exchanges or other destinations. Elevated outflows often signaled additional supply entering the market and weighed on price.

The pressure from outflows matched the chart message from the wick. Sellers pushed price quickly lower, but buyers defended key support.

Analysts said the defense of support mattered for short-term structure. A clean hold kept the consolidation base intact.

If sellers broke that band, the prior range could expand lower. A hold favored continued basing and potential retests higher.

What to Watch in the Next Quarter

Ripple’s Q4 update and any regulatory developments formed the main near-term drivers. Strong operational updates and improved clarity could support a move toward $3.00–$3.10.

Analysts also watched the monthly candle close for confirmation of the wick’s status. A confirmed higher close would mark the longest capitulation wick on record.

That outcome would align with the 2017 sequence that preceded a larger advance. The historical analog would not guarantee similar results, but it would maintain a bullish technical context.

Key levels remained well defined on the chart. Support sat near $2.70–$2.80, with resistance clustered around $3.00–$3.10.

The broader base between $1.50 and $2.00 continued to matter as structural context. That zone framed the multi-month tightening that preceded the latest move.

Seasonality offered an additional lens. October historically leaned positive in eight of thirteen readings, according to Egrag Crypto.

Market structure, whale behavior, and the candle close set the agenda. Those factors provided the objective signals to track as Q4 progressed.