 
 
Bitcoin may be on the cusp of its final surge this cycle, according to new analysis that points to a convergence of historical halving patterns, on-chain signals, and market conditions.
In a post on X, analyst João Wedson noted that Bitcoin is now 528 days past its most recent halving in April 2024. Looking back at previous cycles, Bitcoin’s all-time highs occurred 371 days after the 2012 halving, 525 days after the 2016 halving, and 546 days after the 2020 halving.
Extending the pattern places the current cycle peak between October 19 and November 1, 2025. “We’re at most 30 days (or less) away from the price peak of this cycle,” Wedson wrote.
Another observer highlighted that Bitcoin cycles often stretch about 152 weeks from bottom to peak, which would push this cycle’s end toward late December 2025.
While acknowledging external factors could disrupt the rhythm, the timeline still broadly supports Wedson’s thesis of an approaching peak.
 
Market signals align
Meanwhile, Swissblock analysts argue that Bitcoin is finalizing a bottoming process before resuming its climb. Their Aggregated Impulse Signal, a tool designed to track stress and recovery cycles, is nearing zero. This point has historically coincided with the exhaustion of selling pressure and the start of major recoveries.
“Capitulation stress often marks the end of downside phases,” Swissblock noted, pointing to sharp panic selling between late August and early September that cleared excess leverage.
With liquidity holding strong and network fundamentals intact, the firm believes conditions resemble those seen before past rallies, particularly the October 2024 rebound.
Institutional interest is also fueling optimism
Metaplanet recently added 5,268 BTC, completing its target of 30,823 BTC holdings worth $3.3 billion. Such large-scale accumulation reduces market supply and signals corporate conviction, echoing strategies once popularized by MicroStrategy.
On the technical front, Bitcoin is testing resistance at $113,300, the neckline of a double-bottom formation. A breakout could target $127,500, with a symmetrical triangle setup hinting at a possible run toward $137,000. Macro uncertainty, including the U.S. government shutdown, is further bolstering Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset.