 
 
Spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are likely to snag approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week, but will pull in far lower inflows than their spot Bitcoin (BTC) or Ether (ETH) counterparts, according to analysts at Wall Street bank JPMorgan.
Spot SOL ETFs To Be Approved Soon
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission is widely expected to make preliminary decisions on approximately 16 spot crypto-related exchange-traded fund applications this month, including those tied to Solana.
The SEC recently approved a new simplified set of standards for crypto ETF approvals — a move that has streamlined the listing process and triggered an increase in new crypto ETF proposals. It is now widely anticipated that the SEC will greenlight multiple spot Solana ETFs on its Oct. 10 final deadline.
“The strong likelihood of approval for Solana spot ETFs is reinforced by the fact that there is an already established futures contract at CME,” JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Wednesday report.
The analysts recalled that the first Solana spot ETF was greenlighted and launched in July by REX-Osprey under the Investment Company Act of 1940, unlike other crypto ETFs filed under the Securities Act of 1933.
 
SOL ETFs To Attract Only A Fraction Of Ether’s ETF Inflows
While the probability of Solana ETFs securing approval is high, JPMorgan analysts expect the funds to witness limited demand. They estimate around $1.5 billion in net inflows during the first year, which is roughly one-seventh the level witnessed by Ethereum versions in their first year.
That estimate is based on early flows into the REX Osprey Solana ETF, which has drawn in approximately $350 million since its debut, compared with $2.3 billion in inflows to spot Ether ETFs during their first three months.
“A similar ratio emerges if one looks at the relative size of Solana’s DeFi TVL to that of Ethereum,” the analysts postulated. “Applying this 1/7th ratio to Ethereum’s first year net inflows of $9.6 billion suggests that Solana ETFs could potentially see around $1.5 billion of net inflows during their first year.”
But the analysts cautioned that the figure could even be lower than their projections due to declining on-chain activity, heavy memecoin trading, investor fatigue from multiple potential spot ETF launches, low demand in CME SOL futures, and competition from diversified crypto index products like those tied to the S&P Dow Jones Indices Digital Markets 50. Corporate treasury products offering yield could also steal demand away from the spot funds.