After briefly crossing $126,000 earlier this week, Bitcoin’s latest rally lost steam, slipping back toward the $121,000 zone and forcing traders to question whether momentum is fading or merely recharging.
Market optimism remains high heading into October – a month often associated with major crypto upswings – yet some analysts are turning their focus to a much deeper signal forming quietly in Bitcoin’s charts.
Technical strategist Tony Severino believes the cryptocurrency is entering what could be its most critical stretch in years. His research centers on the Bollinger Bands, a volatility indicator that expands and contracts depending on price movement. According to Severino, the current squeeze on Bitcoin’s weekly bands has reached historic proportions, suggesting that a massive breakout is inevitable – though its direction remains uncertain.
When the bands tighten to such extremes, volatility usually erupts shortly afterward. Severino estimates that the pressure could build for as long as three more months, creating conditions for either a parabolic continuation or a sudden cycle-ending downturn.
“The setup is explosive,” he noted, hinting that the recent move to $126,000 might have been a false signal rather than the beginning of a true breakout. He expects similar feints could occur again before Bitcoin reveals its real trajectory.
Historically, such Bollinger Band squeezes have preceded major turning points – from the late 2016 run that led to Bitcoin’s first six-figure rally, to the mid-2020 compression that fueled its bull market surge. If this pattern holds, the next 100 days could set the tone for the rest of 2025.
For now, Bitcoin remains trapped between anticipation and hesitation – caught between traders betting on another vertical move and others bracing for the market’s first deep correction since summer. Whatever comes next, the chart suggests one thing above all: a storm is brewing.
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Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/a-calm-before-the-storm-bitcoins-volatility-indicator-signals-a-massive-move/