Bitcoin price is trading near $121,870 as over 99% of wallet addresses show unrealized gains, signaling strong market breadth; simulations give a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes October above $140K, while rising global M2 liquidity supports continued upside pressure.
Over 99% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit
Simulations show a 50% chance BTC closes October above $140,000 and a 43% chance below $136,000.
A steady rise in global M2 money supply correlates with multi-month BTC gains, adding macro liquidity tailwinds.
Bitcoin price near $121,870 with 99% of addresses profitable — see simulated odds for $140K and the macro liquidity drivers. Read actionable insight.
What is driving the recent Bitcoin price strength?
Bitcoin price is buoyed by exceptionally broad wallet profitability, with over 99% of addresses showing unrealized gains, signaling market-wide strength. Simulations and rising global M2 liquidity add macro support, making October historically favorable for BTC performance.
How many Bitcoin addresses are currently in profit and why does it matter?
On-chain metrics indicate more than 99% of wallet addresses are in profit, according to publicly reported on-chain charts. This high percentage reflects broad gains across holders and often accompanies bull phases, but it can also precede short-term profit-taking.
JUST IN: Over 99% of all #Bitcoin addresses are now in profit 🚀
Bullish! 🐂 pic.twitter.com/yWSyyIRJ0X
— Bitcoin Magazine (tweet text preserved as plain text)
Historically, the “percent of addresses in profit” has correlated with BTC price cycles. During bull markets the metric often exceeded 90%, and during bear markets it sank below 50% (notable in 2015, 2018, 2022). A near-100% reading indicates broad gains but increases the likelihood of tactical pullbacks.
How likely is Bitcoin to reach $140K in October?
Simulations using a decade of BTC volatility suggest a 50% probability Bitcoin finishes October above $140,000 and a 43% chance it ends below $136,000. These figures come from a volatility-driven model that avoids directional bias by relying on historical price behavior.
What did the simulation model show and who provided it?
Economist and quantitative analyst Timothy Peterson supplied an AI-backed simulation based on ten years of price data. The model shows a balanced distribution of outcomes this month: a material chance of a 20%+ move to $140K, but a non-trivial risk of sub-$136K outcomes.
Half of Bitcoin’s October gains may have already happened, according to this AI simulation. There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k but a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9
— Timothy Peterson (tweet text preserved as plain text)
October outcome scenarios — quick comparison
| Scenario | Model probability | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Finish above $140,000 | 50% | Continuation of October strength; potential momentum traders enter |
| Finish below $136,000 | 43% | Possible profit-taking and short-term consolidation |
| Current price (as reported) | N/A | ~$121,870 — wide room for modeled outcomes |
Why does global M2 money supply matter for Bitcoin?
Rising global M2 money supply expands liquidity in financial systems, which historically correlates with asset price appreciation after a lag. A multi-month offset often shows BTC following liquidity expansion by roughly 60–90 days.
The ongoing M2 expansion provides a macro tailwind for Bitcoin, complementing on-chain strength and simulation-based upside probabilities. Macro liquidity is not the only driver, but it remains a key component in cross-asset moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
How to interpret on-chain profit percentage (HowTo)
Key Takeaways
- Broad profitability: Over 99% of Bitcoin addresses in profit signals strong market breadth but raises short-term correction risk.
- Modeled odds: Simulations indicate a 50% chance of finishing October above $140K and a 43% chance below $136K.
- Macro support: Rising global M2 liquidity is a meaningful tailwind that historically aligns with BTC gains over subsequent months.
Conclusion
Bitcoin price near $121,870, combined with over 99% of addresses in profit and simulation-based odds for $140K, paints a cautiously bullish picture. Market participants should weigh broad on-chain strength against the increased chance of short-term profit-taking, and monitor macro liquidity and volatility for signs of continuation or reversal. For continued coverage, follow COINOTAG updates and on-chain data reports.