FOMC minutes as expected – ING

After a strong few days, the dollar rally has started to stall. Notably, the media pushing the hawkish elements of the FOMC minutes failed to move both the dollar and short-dated US yields last night. Reading through those minutes, one gets the sense that the Fed remains reasonably upbeat on US growth prospects, but just doesn’t want to take any unnecessary risks with higher unemployment. Of course, we’ll have to see how the US jobs data has been faring over the last four to six weeks once the government shutdown ends, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

98.50-99.00 range looks likely for the DXY

“Away from the exciting optimism of a peace deal in the Middle East, global equity markets remain well-supported. China has reopened after a week-long holiday and today’s positive sales results from Taiwan chipmaker TSMC keeps the AI-driven rally on track for the time being. One of the few wrinkles out there remains September’s bankruptcy of US autopart company First Brands and what it says about US lending standards and financial risks.”

“The share price of Jefferies Financial Group has fallen 22% since mid-September as the company’s exposure to First Brands has been explored in the media. At the moment, this is seen as a localised story and key high-yield credit spread indices, such as the Itraxx Cross-Over Index, remain near their tightest levels of the year. But this is a story worth monitoring.”

“We cannot see many big inputs to the dollar story today, but some stability in the euro may draw some of the strength out of the recent DXY rally. A 98.50-99.00 range looks likely here.”