Avalanche: Examining impact of $6M whale activity on AVAX prices

Key Takeaways 

Why is AVAX down?

Avalanche dropped by 5% in the past 24 hours, aligning with the correction seen in the crypto markets.

Can activity spark a reversal?

Rising on-chain activity suggested a potential rebound in price action.

Avalanche [AVAX] has recently drawn public attention, reflected in rising on-chain activity. However, its price dropped over 5% in the past 24 hours, at press time, extending to a 7% decline over the week.

This pullback aligns with the broader crypto market correction following last week’s bullish momentum. Notably, the dip attracted a significant buy-in, hinting at possible signs of a reversal.

Whales accumulate!

According to Arkham data, a whale bought about 200K AVAX valued at about $6 million in the past 24 hours. The activity indicated a classic accumulation behavior of informed money during periods of market strength.

At the same time, another whale transferred about $12 million into a Coinbase wallet.

Source: Arkham

On top of that, activity on the blockchain was also on the rise.

Booming chain activity

On-chain data from DefiLlama revealed that the altcoin saw a $200 million increase in trading volume, as of writing, pushing its cumulative volume past $950 billion.

Decentralized exchange (DEX) activity made up nearly 33% of the total daily volume. Token liquidity stood at approximately $3.74 million, which included user rewards.

Source: DefiLlama

Development activity is continuously growing, which is contributing to the bullish sentiment.

The number of smart contracts on Avalanche’s ecosystem has more than tripled over the past year. As of press time, the cumulative number of contracts was more than 44 million.

The total burned AVAX reached 4.8 million, which reduces the supply. The average burn rate has been 1,250 tokens per day since mid-July.

More activity is expected as the Avalanche blockchain will be hosting FIFA’s NFT tokens for the 2026 World Cup using AvaCloud. As reported by CoinMarketCap, this would power real-world programs.

Will the altcoin reverse the weakening price?

On the charts, AVAX had broken below a narrowing rising wedge pattern. The altcoin confirmed the fall with an equal lower high at the breakout level.

On the four-hour chart, AVAX price was stabilizing around the 0.75 Fibonacci Retracement level. This was after breaking below the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Reclaiming the 200 EMA as support would confirm the reversal. Still, if the current level held, it could be a great zone to go long as it aligned with the Fib level known to spark reversals.

Still, it was unclear.

Source: TradingView

Alternatively, AVAX could drop to $26 to retest the previously broken range high. Since mid-September, the altcoin has traded within a range between $22 and $26.

At present, AVAX is in a state of indecision, especially when viewed against the broader market backdrop. 

Still, both on-chain metrics and technical indicators are beginning to show early signs of a potential reversal.