Parallels to last year’s Copper price surge – Commerzbank

The Copper price has reached levels close to $10,800 per ton, the highest since May of last year, Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

Current price levels are unlikely to be justified

“Back then, concerns about supply disruptions due to issues in mine production—following the unexpected closure of Panama’s largest mine—drove prices higher. At the time, we also cautioned that the price increase was largely driven by expectations, calling for prudence.”

“Ultimately, those concerns proved to be exaggerated, as there were no restrictions on metal production, despite discussions among Chinese Copper smelters regarding capacity controls. The production momentum in the world’s most important producer country remained strong.”

“In the second half of the year, a price correction followed. For similar reasons, we remain skeptical this time that the current price levels are justified.”