EUR is soft and trading defensively – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and showing signs of renewed weakness as it pushes back toward Monday’s lows in the mid-1.16s, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Political uncertainty in France continues

“Focus remains on France as market participants assess President Macron’s latest attempt to build a governing coalition by asking outgoing PM Lecornu to continue talks through Wednesday.”

“France-Germany yield spreads have widened marginally but remain within the extended wides observed in late 2024. Fundamentally, Germany-US spreads remain supportive for the EUR, but measures of sentiment are turning bearish with a notable shift in risk reversals fading a good portion of the premium for protection against EUR upside.”

“EUR/USD is extending its latest break below the 50 day MA (1.1683) and is also pushing below the descending trend line drawn from the July highs. We see no major support levels between the mid-1.16s and 1.15, and note the RSI’s push below 50—suggesting an acceleration of bearish momentum. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1650 and 1.1750.”