We’ve known for some time that Donald Trump has severe weaknesses in the polls on the economy and especially inflation and tariffs. And while the president gets better marks on handling immigration and crime, both issues present potential problems as many Americans believe his administration is going too far. Focus groups and a limited number of new polls tell us that he has lost some ground among young people and minorities who voted for him. The president’s overall approval rating has been fairly steady recently, but that relative stability masks some worrying undercurrents, especially among political independents.
All this said, however, the Democrats aren’t exactly capturing voters’ hearts and minds. And, they still have trouble with their base. In the latest Economist/YouGov survey, 54% of Democrats approved of the job Senator Chuck Schumer was doing. Sixty-two percent of Republicans gave that response about House Republican leader Mike Johnson. A new Pew Research Center survey found that all four congressional leaders were viewed more negatively than positively. Pew noted that “Democrats now express more disapproval of their party’s congressional leadership than at any time in several decades,” while Republicans are more positive about theirs.
Off-year elections, where voter turnout is key, are still more than a year away, and that is an eternity in politics. But in the Economist/YouGov poll, independents, by a10-point margin, said they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress over the GOP one if the election were being held today, although many said they were unsure or wouldn’t vote.
It is worth looking at what we know about people who call themselves independents. A substantial amount of political science research shows that many in this large group actually lean to the Democratic or Republican parties and that only a small number are pure independents. A new CNN analysis of independents, building on a 2007 analysis from the Washington Post, KFF, and Harvard provides some insights into independents today and some clues about why they may be a particularly problematic group for the GOP as we move toward the off-year elections.
In the CNN analysis, 44% of people self-identified themselves as independents when asked the familiar question: In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent? Of the remainder, roughly equal shares said they were Republicans (28%) and Democrats (27%). When the researchers started looking at the independent group as a whole, they found that 24% were Democratic “look-alikes” and 12% Republican ones. These are people who reject the party labels but actually align closely with one of the two parties. They also vote for candidates of the party they look like. As we have come to expect in recent elections, the Democratic lookalikes are more female than male, and the GOP lookalikes are more male than female. Both are mostly white. Slightly more than half of these soft Democrats call themselves progressives. About a third of the Republicans look-alikes say they align with MAGA.
The “Upbeat Outsiders” were 22% of the independent group. The largest age swath in this group are 30 to 49 years old. They don’t tune into politics and a large number of them say they haven’t voted in a decade. CNN calls them “true independents” and in this analysis, they leaned slightly more to Republicans than Democratic. But most don’t truly lean to either party.
The “Disappointed Middle” are 16% of the independents, and more than the other groups they hold unfavorable views of both parties. They still think it is important to participate. This group is more male than female and more white than other racial/ethnic groups. While more of them lean to the GOP than the Democrats, most don’t lean to either party.
The recent New York Times/Siena poll asked a number of questions about areas where many believe Trump has gone too far. In polls, independents usually put themselves in the middle between Democratic and Republican partisans. On questions about deploying the National Guard in big cities, pressing colleges and universities, and pressuring media organizations, however, they sided more with Democrats. I don’t particularly like this question as it seems to produce an easy kind of socially acceptable response in today’s political environment, but it does suggest a potential problem for the administration next year. Outside his base, few Americans are happy with Trump, and he has lost ground among independents. In the final analysis, the election results will depend on which of the diverse groups CNN identified decide to vote and how they cast their ballots.