Michael Saylor Reveals Key Risks of Bitcoin Strategy Amid $3.9 Billion Fair Value

Michael Saylor did not buy Bitcoin last week as he suggested yesterday on X, but he still had news to share. His company’s  report said it made $3.9 billion from Bitcoin in Q3, 2025, showing how much the firm’s balance sheet changes when the price of Bitcoin goes up. 

The SEC filing made it clear: no new purchases were made in the last week, but the coins they already hold did the work.

Numbers behind Strategy

By the end of September, Strategy had bought 640,031 BTC at an average price of about $74,000 per coin, while the market closed Q3 above $114,000. That gap pushed the total value of digital assets to over $73 billion and locked in the unrealized gain. 

Alongside the headline number came a big tax entry — more than $1.1 billion in deferred tax expenses. Thanks to new Treasury rules, Strategy will not have to count those gains for minimum tax this year.

The filing noted that the company raised over $5 billion in fresh capital during the quarter. This continues to fuel the Bitcoin strategy, though no new coins were added recently.

Risks revealed

But the same document explained the risks. Bitcoin is highly volatile, swinging between $60,000 and $120,000 over the past year, says the document. 

The company admits most of its assets are tied up in Bitcoin, meaning a huge drop could leave them exposed. Liquidity needs, debt and dividend payouts may one day force sales of coins, possibly below cost. 

Strategy also carries over $8 billion in debt and hundreds of millions in annual dividends, making it reliant on stable financing and a strong Bitcoin market.

The headline is huge: almost $4 billion in gains without selling a single coin. But the footnotes show the other side — if Bitcoin turns down, the losses could come just as fast.