Bitcoin above $125,000, BTC, ETH, and Solana ETFs on the way, Fed minutes and US shutdown: discover the key events that will move the crypto market in the week of October 6–12, 2025.
Bitcoin surpasses $125,000: the crypto market in full euphoria
The week opens with the crypto market at all-time highs. Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed $125,000, pulling along Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) and numerous altcoins. The total market capitalization of the sector has almost surpassed 4 trillion dollars, fueling a sentiment of extreme euphoria.
However, several analysts warn of the risk of profit-taking in the short term, considering the sentiment indicators near their peaks.
On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates to counteract the economic slowdown, while the US government is stalled by the shutdown that began on October 1st, causing delays in economic data and SEC decisions.
Key Events of the Week (October 6–12, 2025)
October 6–7 – London Fintech Summit 2025 (UK)
The London fintech summit will address the theme of crypto and digital payments, with the participation of regulators and financial institutions. Positive impact on sentiment, but neutral on prices unless there are concrete announcements.
October 6–12 – USA Government Shutdown
The federal block continues, delaying economic statistics and SEC decisions. The impact remains uncertain: it could increase volatility and slow down the approval times of crypto ETFs.
October 8 – FOMC Minutes of the Federal Reserve
The minutes of the September 16–17 meeting will provide clues on the pace of rate cuts.
A dovish tone would favor risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while cautionary signals on inflation could slow the rally.
October 8 – SEC Decision on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
The SEC will have to make a decision on the Truth Social Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF, the first combined spot fund on BTC and ETH.
An approval would be historic and bullish: it would open the door to new institutional flows and could push BTC beyond $130,000 and ETH towards $5,000. A delay or rejection, on the other hand, would trigger profit-taking.
October 8–9 – Digital Assets Week (London)
Institutional event of reference for digital finance. Possible announcements of partnerships between banks and crypto companies: in such case, positive effect on DeFi and custody.
October 10 – SEC on Solana and Litecoin ETFs
The SEC will decide on the conversion of Grayscale trusts into Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) ETFs.
Awaiting positive approvals, particularly for Solana, which boasts +220% YTD. A green light could trigger a rally towards the old ATH of $260.
October 11 – Ethereum Testnet “Fusaka”
Ethereum developers complete testing ahead of the major Fusaka upgrade (December 2025), aimed at improving scalability and data availability.
Neutral impact: the roadmap is already priced in, but potential bugs could create temporary FUD.
October 12 – Future Blockchain Summit (Dubai)
One of the most important crypto and Web3 events in the MENA region.
Expected exchange founders and local authorities. Announcements of partnerships or regional hubs could support the positive medium-term sentiment.
ETF, regulation and monetary policy: the catalysts of the week
The week kicks off the so-called “Cointober”, the key month for the approval of ETFs on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins.
Analysts estimate a 95% probability of approval for the first spot ETFs, thanks to the more open approach of the new SEC led by Paul Atkins.
In parallel, the Federal Reserve continues its accommodative shift: the FOMC minutes of October 8 will clarify the pace of rate cuts, a crucial element for risk assets.
If the “dovish Fed + incoming ETF” narrative is confirmed, we could witness a new bullish push on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Solana and Ripple in the Spotlight
Besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana (SOL) is the most watched asset.
The approval of the ETF and the future “Alpenglow” upgrade could mark the full maturity of the network, pushing SOL towards new all-time highs.
Ripple (XRP) also remains in the spotlight: by October, the OCC could decide on Ripple Labs’ federal banking charter, a potentially groundbreaking event for the integration between banks and blockchain.
Ethereum towards the Fusaka upgrade
After the activation of the Holesky testnet and preparations for Fusaka, Ethereum continues to strengthen its fundamentals. The upgrade scheduled for December will bring an increase in scalability up to 8x, consolidating ETH’s position as the leading smart contract platform. This could be the spark for a new breakout above $5,000.
Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
- Bitcoin (BTC): support at $121,000, key resistance at $126,000. A break above this threshold would open space towards $135–140k.
- Ethereum (ETH): range $4,300–$4,700, psychological resistance at $5,000.
- Solana (SOL): very strong momentum, possible extension towards $300 if the ETF is approved.
- Fear & Greed Index: 85/100 (Extreme Greed), signal of possible overbought conditions.
The open interest on BTC futures has exceeded $220 billion, indicating high leverage: watch out for possible short squeezes or rapid corrections.
Market Scenarios for the Week
🔵 Bullish Scenario
Approved ETFs, dovish Fed minutes, and positive sentiment push BTC towards $135–150k.
ETH breaks $5,000 and SOL reaches new highs over $280.
⚪ Neutral scenario
Mixed events and profit-taking lead to consolidation between $118k and $128k.
Divergent altcoins but underlying trend still bullish.
🔴 Bearish scenario
SEC delays or hawkish Fed tone cause profit-taking: BTC below $120k, ETH towards $4,000, SOL -15%. Flight-to-safety on stablecoin and DeFi.
Outlook: cautious optimism in a high volatility context
The week of October 6–12, 2025 is shaping up to be a turning point for the crypto market.
ETF, monetary policy, and macroeconomics intertwine in a context of euphoria and risk. Investors will need to maintain discipline: volatility will remain high, but the underlying trend remains bullish and structurally solid.
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