Bitcoin approaches ‘heated’ zone: Will BTC retrace below $120k?

Key Takeaways

What is the Bitcoin price forecast this week?

The $124k region would likely be flipped to support, but there is also a minor chance of a retest of the $119k support, as it was a key moving average.

Do metrics and technical indicators support a price rally?

Yes, the Money Flow Index has dropped to healthy bullish levels, and the mean coin age reflects BTC accumulation.

Bitcoin [BTC] made a new all-time high on Sunday, the 5th of October, reaching $125,599. Over the past 24 hours, it saw a slight pullback to $122.8k. At press time, it was trading at $123,974.

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

The 4-hour chart showed that the $124.5k level was a key local high in recent weeks. Sunday’s rally was brief, and this level was not defended as support.

However, it showed that the supply overhead was weakened.

In a post on X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that the $117k level was an important demand zone. This claim was backed by the UTXO realized price distribution.

Another popular analyst, CrypNuevo, highlighted the potential for a pullback to the 4-hour 50-period simple moving average. At the time of writing, the H4 50SMA was at $119k.

The MFI, according to the H4 chart above, did not reflect overextended conditions. It has pulled back to healthy levels after moving beyond the overbought 80 mark on Sunday.

Will Bitcoin continue its rally this week, or should traders wait for a price dip?

“Heated” zone could delay or halt Bitcoin rally

Source: checkonchain

Based on the short-term holder MVRV Bollinger Bands, it was safe to say that recent Bitcoin buyers were not close to being statistically extremely profitable, which would signal a potential market correction.

The “heated” level was at $126.6k at the time of writing. The heated zone has served as a soft barrier for BTC prices, such as in mid-August, most recently.

Source: CryptoQuant

The mean coin age represents the average age of all coins on a network. A rising trend in the MCA implies steady accumulation, while a drop in the metric shows increased coin movement and selling pressure.

Since August, this metric has been climbing higher, reflecting network-wide accumulation. Despite making a new ATH, holders did not opt to sell en masse, which was a sign of conviction.

AMBCrypto reported that a 7% rally beyond $125k, targeting $133.6k, was a likelihood. Fibonacci extension levels showed $139k was a possibility in the coming weeks.