Key Insights:
- Trend accumulation score shows smart money investors are strongly accumulating more BTC as Bitcoin price accelerates.
- Periods of accumulation following a multi-month consolidation have often served as precursors to significant bullish breakouts.
- Benjamin Cowen explained that the cryptocurrency typically reaches its cycle top when it posts a weekly close at or below the 50 week moving average.
After months of consolidation around the $100,000 Bitcoin price level, data now shows that both institutional and retail investors are positioning for what many see as the next major phase of this bull cycle.
Confidence appears to be returning, and the movement of “smart money” is offering valuable clues about where the market could be headed next.
As per a YouTube analysis by expert analyst Benjamin Cowen, the Bitcoin dominance index continues to rise with the 50 week moving average positioning itself as a major signal for the cycle top.
Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Among Whales is Strengthening
According to on-chain insights from Glassnode, the trend accumulation score across Bitcoin wallet cohorts holding 10,000+ BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC has been heating up, suggesting that large holdersare once again in strong accumulation mode.
This renewed buying pressure marks a notable shift from the distribution phase observed earlier in the year.
In early 2025, accumulation activity was intense among the largest cohorts, coinciding with a market phase of consolidation and recovery after Bitcoin’s pullback from its prior highs.
By mid-year, however, the data clearly pointed to a distribution period, as profit-taking spread across multiple cohorts while prices climbed toward the $110,000 region.
What stands out now is the synchronized accumulation across both whales and smaller investors.
As the chart shows, wallets holding between 1–10 BTC have also re-entered accumulation mode, aligning with renewed buying by larger cohorts.
This convergence of interest from both retail and institutional segments tends to signal growing conviction in the market’s direction.
Historically, such periods of accumulation following a multi-month consolidation have often served as precursors to significant bullish breakouts.
Meanwhile, Glassnode also highlighted that selling among whales had slowed down in recent days, as institutional demand continues to lead the charge with significant ETF inflows.
Bitcoin Dominance Peaking, Price Action to Benefit?
According to market analyst Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average has now reached $101,000. He explained that the cryptocurrency typically reaches its cycle top when it posts a weekly close at or below this moving average.
Cowen noted that this pattern usually appears after the halving year or sometimes during the mid-cycle period. He cautioned investors to keep an eye on this signal, emphasizing that it often marks the end of a bullish cycle. However, he added that Bitcoin has not yet reached that point, as the price trend remains upward for now.
Recently, Bitcoin bounced off its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), then pulled back, established a higher low, and rebounded once more.
Cowen described this as a healthy move, showing resilience in the market. Still, he warned that what matters most is follow-through — sustained momentum beyond short-term gains.
All Major Bitcoin Price Cycle Top Previously Happened in Q4 of the Post-halving
Benjamin Cowen reminded investors that, while anything is possible in the cryptocurrency market, history tends to repeat itself.
He pointed out that in every major Bitcoin cycle, the market top has occurred during the fourth quarter of the post-halving year. As the current cycle approaches that same period, he advised traders not to grow complacent.
Cowen emphasized that no one can predict Bitcoin’s exact peak, noting that there is no crystal ball to determine whether the price will stop at $125,000 or climb significantly higher.
However, he explained that investors can rely on certain indicators and historical patterns to guide their expectations as the cycle develops.