Bitcoin Could Extend Gains After New All-Time High as ETF Inflows and Supply Shortage Persist

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Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $125,200 as heavy spot-ETF inflows and a shrinking exchange supply created a sharp demand-to-supply imbalance, driving institutional accumulation and lifting market capitalization to roughly $2.49 trillion in early October 2025.

• ETF inflows: $3.24B this week, largest since January 2025

• Exchange reserves fell to ~2.83M BTC, the lowest since 2019 (Glassnode).

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Market technicals show bullish momentum: 7‑day SMA $117,800; 200‑day EMA $105,511; RSI ~69.

Bitcoin all-time high: Bitcoin rises above $125,200 on ETF inflows and low exchange supply — read key drivers and next targets. Stay informed with COINOTAG.

What caused Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high?

Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high was driven by accelerated institutional demand via spot ETFs and a marked reduction in exchange liquid supply. ETFs recorded $3.24 billion in weekly inflows while centralized exchange balances fell to multi-year lows, creating a strong demand-to-supply imbalance and upward price pressure.

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How did ETF inflows fuel the breakout?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.24 billion in inflows this week, led by large single-day purchases (for example, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust absorbed ~$524 million in one day). ETFs are acquiring roughly 8,200 BTC per day while miner issuance remains near 450 BTC daily, creating an estimated 20:1 demand-to-supply gap.

That sustained accumulation mirrors conditions seen in late 2020 when institutional capital first entered the market at scale, and it increases the probability of extended bullish momentum if inflows persist.

Why is exchange supply important and what does data show?

Exchange supply is a proxy for available liquid Bitcoin. Glassnode-style on-chain metrics show centralized exchange balances down to approximately 2.83 million BTC—the lowest since 2019. Over the past two weeks, withdrawals equivalent to more than $14 billion were observed, indicating growing scarcity on venues that facilitate quick selling.

Institutional custodians and long-term holders withdrawing coins reduces available float and can amplify price moves when inflows continue to outpace new supply.

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What do technical indicators say about the trend?

Chart indicators confirm bullish strength while not yet signalling extreme overbought conditions. Bitcoin reclaimed major averages: 7‑day SMA near $117,800 and 200‑day EMA at $105,511 acting as support. MACD histogram at +1,127 and RSI around 69.2 indicate momentum remains healthy with short-term resistance near $128,000 and a Fibonacci extension target around $139,000 if momentum continues.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did ETFs buy this week?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $3.24 billion in inflows this week, led by sizable single-day purchases that accelerated institutional accumulation (data referenced from public ETF flow reports).

Is the supply shortage real and measurable?

Yes. Centralized exchange balances have declined to roughly 2.83 million BTC, the lowest level since 2019, according to on-chain exchange balance metrics. This reduced liquid supply increases scarcity risk if demand remains elevated.

How to interpret ETF-driven rallies?

Follow these steps to assess the sustainability of ETF-driven rallies:

1. Monitor weekly ETF net flows to gauge institutional demand.
2. Track centralized exchange balances for shifts in liquid supply.
3. Confirm technical support levels (7‑day SMA, 200‑day EMA) and momentum indicators (MACD, RSI).
4. Compare miner issuance to ETF acquisition rates to assess demand-to-supply imbalance.

Key Takeaways

• ETF demand: Institutional spot-ETF inflows (≈$3.24B this week) are a primary driver of the rally.
• Supply shortage: Centralized exchange reserves dropped to ~2.83M BTC, increasing scarcity and potential volatility.
• Technical outlook: Support at $105k–$118k with short-term resistance near $128k; extension targets toward $139k if momentum continues.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s new all-time high above $125,200 reflects a convergence of strong institutional ETF inflows and a measurable decrease in exchange liquid supply. Data from market flow reports and on-chain metrics suggest the rally is backed by real demand rather than pure speculation. Monitor ETF flows, exchange balances, and technical support to gauge the next leg of price action. COINOTAG will continue to report updates and data-driven analysis.

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