BTC Breakout Sparks Rally, Is $126K the Next Stop?

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin breakout from cup and handle pattern keeps bulls in control, with $126K the next resistance.
• Historical data shows Bitcoin often bottoms in September, with the $107K low now closely monitored.
• Q4 seasonality highlights strong past rallies, with projections suggesting a possible path toward $170K.

Bitcoin (BTC) was holding firm after a strong breakout on the hourly chart. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $120,623 with a 24-hour trading volume of $68.8 billion. The price has gained 1% over the past day and is up 10% during the last week.

Cup and Handle Formation Signals Strength

On the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin has formed a cup and handle pattern, which triggered a breakout and a fast 5% rise. Since then, the price has consolidated while remaining above the uptrend line, keeping the bullish setup intact.

Crypto King noted,

 “This is as clear as it gets. $BTC on the 1H chart has formed a perfect cup and handle. The breakout gave a fast 5% move, and price is holding the uptrend line.” 

The structure suggests room for a move toward $122,000 and possibly $126,000, with $118,000–$119,000 acting as key support.

September Lows Add Historical Context

Long-term analysis from Ted highlights a recurring pattern where Bitcoin often finds a cycle bottom in September. Records since 2016 show seven instances of September lows, followed by recovery phases.

In the current cycle, BTC dropped to around $107,000 in September before rebounding. The price has since gained about 12%. 

Ted remarked,

 “Historically this means BTC bottom is most likely in and it won’t go lower than $107K. Let’s see how this plays out.” 

This makes $107K a level closely watched by traders and analysts.

Q4 Trends Point Toward Higher Levels

Bitcoinsensus has drawn attention to Bitcoin’s repeated strength in the fourth quarter. In Q4 2023, Bitcoin broke out of consolidation, while Q4 2024 extended the trend with further gains. Looking ahead, the projection for Q4 2025 outlines a possible surge that could push the price above $170,000, provided the seasonal trend continues.