- Polymarket odds show 90% chance of a Fed cut as crypto bets pile in.
- Bitcoin trades above $120K with $73B daily volume, signaling strong liquidity.
- Ethereum climbs near $4,470 as Uptober rally builds momentum.
Prediction markets are leaning hard toward monetary easing, and crypto is responding. Polymarket odds now show a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October, with a 25-basis-point move as the clear favorite. By contrast, the likelihood of no policy change has slipped to 8%, and wagers on a deeper 50 bps cut remain capped at 3-4%.
That surge in conviction marks a sharp turn from midsummer sentiment. Back in July, Polymarket traders gave the same 25 bps cut just a 40% chance. By late September, odds were north of 70%. The steady climb to today’s 90% shows how markets have re-priced the Fed’s path heading into Q4.
Related: Tom Lee Says Bitcoin and Ethereum Could See ‘Monster Move’ After Fed Rate Cuts
Bitcoin Holds $120K With Liquidity Backing the Move
The shift in macro expectations has kept Bitcoin steady above $120,000. On October 3, BTC traded at $120,367, up 1.19% in 24 hours, with intraday highs brushing $121,000 before consolidating near $120,300.
Liquidity conditions remain strong, with a 24-hour trading volume increase of 6.56% to $73.07 billion. The volume-to-market-cap ratio stands at 3.01%, reflecting consistent market activity. With 19.92 million BTC already in circulation against a maximum capped supply of 21 million, scarcity continues to frame Bitcoin’s valuation.
Ethereum Rides Macro Tailwinds to $4,470
Ethereum tracked the same momentum. ETH rose 1.91% to $4,473, lifting its market cap to nearly $540 billion. Trading activity added weight to the move, with $47.55 billion in volume over 24 hours, up 5.19% from the previous session.
This produced a volume-to-market-cap ratio of 8.64%, pointing to heightened investor participation. Price movements show Ethereum opening at $4,391 before pushing above $4,540 overnight, followed by a retreat to consolidate near $4,470.
Related: Options Market Signals BTC and ETH Rally Into Year-End After Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
Source: https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-ethereum-ride-polymarkets-fed-rate-cut-sentiment-is-overbought-next/