- Bitcoin ETFs attracted $676M; Ethereum ETFs added $80M inflows.
- Government shutdown paused SEC, pushing investors toward existing crypto ETFs.
- Analysts see Q4 gains, projecting Bitcoin $160K–$200K by year-end.
Bitcoin is showing signs of heading toward $180,000, according to analysts who see the current market structure repeating a rare setup. The move comes as Bitcoin closes one of its largest quarterly candles ever recorded, supported by strong ETF inflows, liquidity flow into crypto after the US government shutdown, and a surge in gold prices.
At the time of writing, the global crypto market capitalization stands at $4.15 trillion, up 1.74% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $120,327, showing a 1.29% daily gain and nearly 10% growth over the past week. BTC traded between $118,383 and $121,086, and it remains about 3.5% below its all-time high of $124,457, reached in August 2025.
Government Shutdown the Surprise Catalyst for Crypto
The ongoing US government shutdown has frozen SEC activity, halting new ETF approvals and regulatory filings. This has left investors with two main options for crypto exposure: existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
On October 1 alone, Bitcoin ETFs brought in $676 million in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs added another $80 million. BlackRock’s IBIT fund has now climbed back above $90 billion in assets, ranking among the top 20 ETFs in the United States.
Related: September’s Scars Fade: Is Fibonacci Pointing XRP and ETH to Uncharted Highs?
Do Shutdowns Hurt or Help Bitcoin?
In past shutdowns, Bitcoin often rallied before correcting sharply. For example, it fell 23% after a 2018 surge and 18% following gains in 2019. Today, however, the market structure is different. Bitcoin has already broken above $120,000, supported by institutional inflows that were absent in earlier cycles.
Historically, government shutdowns last about eight days, with the S&P 500 rising 86% of the time a year later. Once shutdowns end, delayed spending, federal back pay, and contracts flow back into the economy. This renewed liquidity, combined with rate cuts, often supports risk assets.
On-Chain Signals: Whales Keep Buying
On-chain signals support the bullish case. Demand has been rising by over 62,000 Bitcoin per month since July, with whale holdings expanding rapidly.
Accumulator wallets, which buy but rarely sell, now hold a record 298,000 Bitcoin. Tether has also added $1 billion worth of Bitcoin to its reserves while minting over $10 billion in new USDT in the past two months.
Bitcoin Q4 Outlook: $160K to $200K on the Table
If history repeats, Bitcoin could be set for a strong fourth quarter. Every green September in Bitcoin’s history has been followed by average Q4 gains of over 50%. The analyst now sees a path to $160,000–$200,000 by year end.
Related: Crypto Market Cap Back Above $4 Trillion, Traders Ask If This Signals Altcoin Rally Start
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