Friday’s crypto market opens on a knife’s edge. Bitcoin’s price is at $120,091, up 1.2%, and the total market capitalization is close to $2.7 trillion.
One thing to watch today is the Deribit expiry of $3.35 billions in BTC contracts. These contracts could reach a maximum pain zone of $115,000. With all that leverage, strong inflows and expiry pressure, it is set to be a volatile start to U.S. trading.
Bitcoin bulls defend $120,000 despite $14.7 billion liquidation risk
Bitcoin is holding strong at over $120,000, which is now acting like a support level, both emotionally and technically. Expiry flows are focused on $115,000, with dealers keeping an eye on whether the price moves closer to that before expiration.
If the bulls hold $118,000-$120,000, we could see upside open toward $122,000-$125,000 into the weekend. Failure, though, could lead to a chain reaction of liquidations. CoinGlass maps show the scale: if BTC drops to $106,500, it would wipe out nearly $15 billion in long positions.
The market is split between leverage pressure and real demand. While futures positioning is overextended, spot flows remain strong. This is a classic setup for mega squeezes in either direction once expiry clears.
Ethereum faces $969 million expiry as $4,200 anchor holds
Meanwhile, Ethereum is selling for $4,460, on its way to $4,500, as the market gets more and more volatile. Deribit’s option concentration sits at $4,200, which is right around what a lot of dealers think ETH will end up at.
Above $4,500, the upside opens to $4,700-$4,800. But there is a lot of risk involved in liquidating these holdings. CoinGlass shows that if the price dips to $3,880, there are $10.2 billion in ETH longs that would be exposed. So, if the price drops below $4,171, it could speed up that slide, sending ETH below $4,000.
ETFs are still supporting ETH’s base, but the short-term drivers are expiry dynamics and Bitcoin’s direction. If BTC loses its footing, ETH could unwind faster because of its leverage load.
Ripple director unveils XRP privacy roadmap for 2026
J. Ayo Akinyele, Ripple’s Senior Director of Engineering, shared a bold plan to integrate native privacy features into the XRP Ledger by 2026.
The roadmap introduces confidential multi-purpose tokens (MPTs), secure enclaves to prevent frontrunning, and zero-knowledge proofs to allow compliance without revealing sensitive data.
As Akinyele points out, privacy is not secrecy for bad actors but the same baseline protection that underpins traditional banking.
By adding these tools to XRPL, Ripple aims to position XRP as the first public ledger combining transparency and institutional-grade confidentiality. With trillions in assets expected to move on-chain, programmable privacy is key to DeFi adoption.
Chart of the day: Shiba Inu’s October setup points to 11% upside
Shiba Inu (SHIB) is stable at $0.00001244, just above the low it hit in September. The chart is interesting for two reasons: a tight Bollinger squeeze to $0.00001410, and October’s impact on SHIB’s price.
In 2021, October was the month in which SHIB exploded +833% and made its way into the global top 10. In 2023, it had a modest gain of +6.04%, and in 2024 it still found room for +2.46% despite a stagnant backdrop. If you add it all up, October looks less like a coincidence and more like the meme coin’s unofficial earnings season.
The setup today is cleaner: liquidity is concentrated between $0.00001200 and $0.00001410, leaving little middle ground. Either SHIB surges and brings meme coin traders back into the mix, or it dips below support and October’s narrative implodes before it even starts. For a token based on feelings, the season might matter as much as any chart pattern.
Evening outlook
As for the evening outlook, everyone is keeping an eye on Bitcoin’s price, which is in the range of $118,000 to $120,000. A strong defense keeps the Uptober narrative alive, but if it dips below $118K, we might see a rush to the $115K pain zone.
Ethereum’s short-term future depends on $4,200. If it holds, ETH could go up to around $4,500-$4,700. But if it drops, the main altcoin might dip down to $3,900.
Altcoins are still pretty selective. PancakeSwap (CAKE) is up 28%, ETHFI is up 14% and meme coins and privacy narratives are all over the headlines. With the SEC in limbo because of the shutdown, the focus is on BTC and ETH’s expiry, SHIB’s October setup and Ripple’s XRP privacy push.