the price rises more than that of ETH

Today the price of Bitcoin is rising. That of ETH is not. 

Perhaps a trend change is underway, likely due to the trend change of the Dollar Index. 

There are beginning to be signals suggesting that the conditions for an “uptober” might already be present. Only the trigger is missing. 

The price of Bitcoin

Starting from Friday, September 19, a correction in the price of Bitcoin began, due to which in just six days it dropped from nearly $118,000 to $109,000. 

That decline ended on September 25, but the rebound only started on Sunday the 28th. 

Note that the rebound has brought it back above $114,000, which is still far from the nearly $118,000 of a couple of weeks ago, but it should not be forgotten that the all-time highs (124,000$) are not far away. 

What matters most, however, is that the trend of the Dollar Index seems to have changed. It should not be forgotten that in the medium term, the price movement of Bitcoin appears to be inversely correlated with that of the Dollar Index. 

The Dollar Index

The lowest peak of the Dollar Index in September was reached precisely on September 17 at approximately 96.5 points. 

That same day a rebound began which brought it back in relatively short time to almost 97.7 points, but on September 24 a mini upward trend started which led it to reach a peak of 98.5 points the following day. 

When DXY was at its September lows, the price of Bitcoin reacted by climbing back near $118,000, but when DXY rebounded, the price of BTC fell. 

On September 25, the monthly peak of DXY occurred, and the monthly low of BTC. 

However, starting from the following day, a new mini downtrend of the Dollar Index began, allowing the price of Bitcoin to rebound. 

The price of ETH

The price of Ethereum has instead fallen by 0.6% since yesterday, and is down 0.5% compared to a week ago. 

In practice, it has been almost stagnant for seven days. 

This difference compared to Bitcoin, however, should not be interpreted as a bad sign. On the contrary, it could actually even be a good sign. 

In fact, the true bull runs of the crypto markets are initially triggered by BTC, with altcoins subsequently following suit.

Until about ten days ago, altcoins were outperforming Bitcoin, including Ethereum. This was highlighted by the altcoin season index of CMC, which had risen above the threshold of 75 points that identifies the start of an altseason. 

However, that was not a true altseason, and in fact, by September 21, it had already fallen below 75 points. 

Now it has returned to the neutral zone, that is, below 60 points, indicating that altcoins as a whole are no longer outperforming Bitcoin at this moment. 

In fact, in the specific case of ETH, it can be said that it is slightly underperforming BTC, but this in itself is not particularly interesting. 

Uptober

The key point at this moment is that the conditions seem to be in place for the start of a new Bitcoin bullrun. 

If this happens, the altcoins would likely follow suit, and thus it shouldn’t be a problem if ETH is currently underperforming BTC. 

However, for a similar scenario to occur, a trigger is missing, which could always come from the Dollar Index. 

The hypothesis is spreading that from now until December, the Fed will be forced to cut rates two more times. To be honest, the October cut is almost taken for granted, as it is given a nearly 90% probability on Polymarket. 

The key point, however, is the potential second cut in December, which on Polymarket is considered likely at 68%.

The fact is that if the Fed cuts rates, the yields on US government bonds will inevitably decrease as well.

This, if it happens, will generate a sale of such bonds, consequently leading to the sale of US dollars by any foreign investors who first sell US bonds, receiving dollars, and then sell dollars to buy local currency. 

All this suggests that there is a possibility of experiencing an “uptober,” meaning an October with rising Bitcoin prices, especially since up until now, every year following the US elections, since BTC has been tradable on the market, has seen Bitcoin’s price perform very well in October. 

It is therefore possible that the conditions for uptober are already in place, or that the trigger for the bullrun may arrive during the month, especially since the downward trend of the Dollar Index seems to have already begun.